MLB NRFI, YRFI Bets Today: Wednesday Model Picks (June 19)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago’s Garrett Crochet.
Our downturn continued on Tuesday, with a 2-2 or 1-3 day depending on how you played the Coors Field game last night. Hopefully we'll start to catch some breaks soon as we approach the halfway point of the MLB season.
We have four more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Wednesday, June 19.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday, June 19
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Patrick Corbin
This pick should come as a surprise to no one — it's Patrick Corbin Day. The much-maligned Nats lefty owns a 5.84 overall ERA and a 5.78 xFIP his first time through the order.
He's taking on the Diamondbacks, who rank second in wRC+ against southpaws on the season and have four straight batters at the top of their lineup who hit lefties better than righties.
Two of those hitters — Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel — are hitting at least .325 against left-handed pitching this year.
The Nationals are also on the stronger side of their platoon splits against the right-handed Brandon Pfaadt, who has an xFIP ever so slightly higher his first time through the order than overall.
Most of the value is on the Arizona side, but Washington is an extremely top-heavy lineup and implied for over four runs today, so don't count the Nats out.
I'd take this to the -130 currently offered by DraftKings before looking into Diamondbacks-specific lines.
Mariners vs. Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Tanner Bibee
Mariners starter Bryan Woo has made six starts this season. The earliest anyone has scored a run against him has been in the fifth inning. That gives him an ERA of 0.00 his first time through the order.
While that obviously won't last forever, it's still a great sign for the NRFI.
He's taking on a Cleveland team that's roughly league average against righties in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball.
On paper, the Mariners are a bit more of a risk here, but they also have an exceedingly difficult matchup. Tanner Bibee's 3.94 overall ERA dips below 2.00 his first time through the order, with a similar (though less pronounced) dip to his xFIP.
Seattle is also a roughly average offense against righties and not particularly top-heavy — at least until Julio Rodriguez can regain his prior form — making them more unthreatening today.
Rays vs. Twins
Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Joe Ryan
Taj Bradley's 4.23 overall ERA is mediocre, but there's reason to think he's actually been better than that. Both his xFIP and SIERA are more than a full run lower through seven starts — a small enough sample size where luck/variance could be playing a considerable role.
He's even better — by any metric –early in games, with his ERA falling to 2.60 and his xFIP dropping to 1.71 the first time through the order.
Joe Ryan doesn't have as extreme splits, but his overall xFIP of 3.32 and first-time-through-the-order mark of 3.15 are both very strong.
Both offenses also hit righties about 10% worse than lefties, another strong indicator in this righty-on-righty pitching matchup. Grab this before the 7.5-run total falls even more — it opened at 8, and the under 7.5 lines are somewhat juiced already.
Astros vs. White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Garrett Crochet
This is an interesting game to break down. We have a terrible offense in Chicago taking on a struggling pitcher in Houston's Hunter Brown, and on the other side, we have a better offense in Houston taking on arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball in Crochet.
Digging a bit deeper, though, the NRFI pretty clearly becomes the right play.
Brown has a 5.00 overall ERA, but his xFIP, SIERA and xERA are all in the 3.5-3.7 range. That's not elite by any stretch but should be more than good enough against the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching.
On the other side, Crochet has a 3.16 ERA but even better underlying numbers. His ERA and xFIP also dip considerably the first time through the order.
On top of that, Houston is a bit worse against southpaws in general, and its best overall hitter, Kyle Tucker, is injured.
This line is as high as -160 at other books, so be sure to grab the FanDuel line while you can. Like the Rays-Twins game, there's a 7.5-run total here that could close even lower.
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