MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Model Predictions (July 4)
Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Stroman
Happy Independence Day! Let's keep our momentum from a 2-0 Wednesday heading into the Holiday, where we have games starting at 11:05 AM eastern and running all day and night.
I have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Thursday, July 4.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Model Predictions (July 4)
Mets vs. Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Jake Irvin
We have another situation where the better offense is taking on the better pitcher, which typically favors the pitcher.
In this case, Washington's Jake Irvin has been excellent this season, with a 3.03 overall ERA and both ERA and xFIP numbers that decrease his first time through the order.
Jose Quintana has been less than excellent, with his ERA and most of his ERA indicators in the mid fours. But, he's taking on the Nationals and their 80 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
He should be able to get through their lineup, especially with the super early start time. It could take some time for bats to wake up after playing until almost 10 p.m. local time the night before.
Reds vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs. Marcus Stroman
The Yankees are the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching with a collective 122 wRC+, and they're taking on one today in Frankie Montas.
Montas isn't even a good righty, with his ERA and ERA indicators in the mid fours, and a first time through the order xFIP of 5.25. Considering he has to face Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, those are concerning numbers.
On the other side, Stroman is a serious regression candidate — with all of his ERA indicators at least a run higher than his 3.29 ERA. He's not especially bad early in games, but is due for some more runs allowed in general.
The Yankees drive most of this, so taking their first inning moneyline or team-specific YRFI also makes sense, but I'm fine with the price point on the YRFI is you can get close to the listed number.
Rays vs. Royals
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin vs. Alec Marsh
Both starters in this contest have sub-3.00 ERAs the first time through the order, making them two of the better NRFI pitchers based on my model.
Eflin has solid overall numbers to match, and while Marsh has struggled a bit, he's at worst mediocre. Both of them having worse overall numbers drives the total in this game up — and thus the NRFI price down — while their early performance obviously helps the NRFIs.
Both teams are also slightly below average offensively against righties, with fairly non-threatening tops of the orders. While Bobby Witt and Isaac Paredes are very good, they aren't Juan Soto or Aaron Judge, and neither is surrounded with much offensively.
Getting through those two batters will be sweaty, but at the current price it's worth the risk.
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