MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions & Bets for Tuesday

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions & Bets for Tuesday article feature image
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Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Soriano (Angels)

We probably should've just taken Monday off, with our lone pick failing to come through. That's the way it goes sometimes, and we have way more opportunities today.

I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 23.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions

Phillies vs. Twins

Phillies Logo
Tuesday, July 23
7:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Twins Logo
NRFI -125 (Play to -130)
DraftKings Logo

Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Simeon Woods Richardson

Zack Wheeler is currently the second-leading candidate for the NL Cy Young, with a 2.70 overall ERA. He's been even better early in games, with that number dropping below two.

That limits the risk on the Twins' side of the equation, especially when they're implied for just 3.7 runs and are on the wrong side of their platoon splits by about 10 points of wRC+.

We're dealing with a little more risk from the Phillies, but Simeon Woods Richardson has also been solid this year with a 3.51 ERA that drops nearly a full run the first time through the order.

Philly is also better against lefties than righties (like Richardson) and it's relatively pitcher-friendly weather tonight, so that's enough to take the chance at this price.

White Sox vs. Rangers

White Sox Logo
Tuesday, July 23
8:05 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Rangers Logo
NRFI -135 (Play to -140)
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Jon Gray

Without looking it up, I'd be willing to bet that Garrett Crochet is the best NRFI pitcher in baseball. That's because he's an elite arm attached to a terrible offense, so his starts probably don't lose many NRFIs based on the White Sox's scoring.

Crochet has actually been better than his 3.02 overall ERA this season, with all of his underlying numbers at least half-a-run lower. Early in games, he sports a 2.53 ERA and 1.80 xFIP.

On the other side, we have Jon Gray. He hasn't been great this year (overall or early), but he's facing the worst offense in the league against righties, so I'm not especially concerned as long as he doesn't give Luis Robert Jr. much to hit.

Angels vs Mariners Odds | Tuesday F5 Pick & Prediction Image

Angels vs. Mariners

Angels Logo
Tuesday, July 23
9:40 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Mariners Logo
NRFI -135 (Play to -140)
DraftKings Logo

Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Logan Gilbert

Now, if I had to blindly bet a team that leads the league in NRFIs, it would be the Mariners. They combine a solid pitching staff with a bad offense — and the hardest ballpark to score runs in the majors.

Today, they're taking on the Angels, another team we like to take NRFIs against, at least since they lost Mike Trout for the season. Los Angeles ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties, plus the matchup with Gilbert and his 2.17 first-time-through-the-order ERA is tough.

Soriano isn't quite as strong, but checks in at 2.67 and is in a good spot against the 22nd-ranked Mariners.

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About the Author
Billy covers the NFL and MMA for Action. He is a former professional fighter and long-time fantasy football player, whose first ever draft pick was Barry Sanders.

Follow Billy Ward @Psychoward586 on Twitter/X.

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