After another 1-2 day on Monday, it was time to update the player data in my model and remove all 2023 hitter stats.
Armed with that fresh information, let's get back after it on a Tuesday full of baseball.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Tuesday, June 4.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday Model Picks & Predictions
Royals vs. Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Triston McKenzie
Seth Lugo and Triston McKenzie have been two of the luckiest pitchers in baseball.
McKenzie has a 3.77 ERA, but a 5.01 xFIP. Lugo's numbers are even more ridiculous with a 1.72 ERA and a 3.84 xFIP. That means both are due for some regression.
More importantly for our purposes, they're also both considerably worse their first time through the order. Lugo's ERA goes up about a run and his xFIP increases as well. McKenzie has a 4.87 ERA and a 5.62 xFIP in his first trip through the lineup.
All of which means there's a high likelihood that some of the 8.5 implied runs happen at the start of this contest, especially since both teams have two hitters with a 140 or higher wRC+ among their first four.
The line at BetMGM is a considerable outlier at even money, but I'd take the price at other sportsbooks as well.
Twins vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Luis Gil
I don't love the presence of Luis Gil and his 1.99 ERA in this game. However, his xFIP and SIERA are both in the mid threes, with his xFIP rising a bit more in his first time through the order.
More of the value comes from the Yankees side, for a few reasons. They have a league-leading 130 wRC+ as a team against righties, and two of their first three hitters are the two best hitters in MLB by wRC+.
They're taking on Bailey Ober, who has a 4.89 ERA overall and a 4.74 mark in his first time through the order — both suggesting he gives up a run in about half of his innings, against a typical team. The Yankees are obviously not typical, making this a solid bet at close to even money when you add in the Twins' chances (which aren't insignificant) to score.
Rangers vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Dane Dunning
Tigers free-agent acquisition Jack Flaherty has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 3.46 ERA, but underlying numbers all in the low-to-mid twos. His first time through the order xFIP is even better, at just 1.56.
This season has also been something of a step forward for Rangers' righty Dane Dunning, who has a 3.94 ERA and a 27.7% strikeout rate. Dunning's numbers are a bit confusing as his xFIP and SIERA are lower than his ERA, but his FIP and xERA are considerably higher.
Either way, he's been elite early in games. His ERA is just 1.61 and his xFIP is 2.37 in his first time through the order. That's good enough for me against a below-average Tigers' offense, in a game with a 7.5-run total.
