We're coming into Thursday's small slate with five straight wins over the past two days. There's not a lot to choose from, but I found a model play to hopefully tack on to the winning streak.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI pick and model predictions for Thursday, April 3.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/3
Reds vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Nestor Cortes
Despite the eight-run total, I have a fairly strong projection to NRFI for the last game of Thursday's slate. There's a couple factors behind that.
First, both starters saw their ERA dip about a full run the first time through the order relative to their overall numbers. While neither are world-beaters, that's a good sign about their early game performance.
It's also a pairing of two southpaws, which puts both teams' first three hitters on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Of the six hitters guaranteed to come up in the first inning, just one (Santiago Espinal) has better numbers against righties than lefties since the start of 2024.
This line is identical at most major sportsbooks, and we have some wiggle room in terms of a projection edge in case it moves.
