We went 2-2 on MLB NRFI picks yesterday, with one of the losses coming on a half-unit play, for a net result of a slight profit on Wednesday. Let's see if we can't improve on that a bit on Friday's full slate of baseball.
I have three MLB NRFI picks and predictions for Friday, including bets for Marlins vs. Nationals, Rays vs. Guardians, and Cubs vs. Rockies.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Model Picks for Friday — 9/13
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Billy Ward's Marlins vs Nationals NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera vs. DJ Herz
This is the perfect game for what my model is built for, as it features two mediocre starting pitchers with very strong early game splits.
That is particularly true for Cabrera, whose 2.45 first time through the order ERA is less than half of his overall number. Both his ERA and xFIP increase each successive time he faces the opposing hitters.
Herz doesn't have quite as drastic splits, but he's the better overall pitcher and facing a much worse offense. Miami ranks 29th in wRC+ against lefties with a pitiful 73 mark.
Not that the Nationals are an especially scary lineup either, with slightly below average wRC+ numbers themselves.
Billy Ward's Rays vs Guardians NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibbee vs. Zack Littell
This is another game in which both starters do their best work early in games.
Bibbee has a first time through the order ERA of 2.73, with Littell at 3.11. On top of that, both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
We've also got a pitcher's park in Progressive Field with a Park Factor of 94 — meaning scoring is 6% lower than league average.
Perhaps most importantly, the -118 line at BetRivers is a good bit off the market, though I'd still take this one at the -130 line offered by Caesars and FanDuel.
Billy Ward's Cubs vs Rockies YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad vs. Austin Gomber
I'm typically wary of taking YRFIs at Coors Field, as books tend to overcorrect for the scoring environment with their pricing of the prop.
However, that's not the case today, at least at Caesars where the YRFI is a mostly reasonable -130.
Most of that value comes from the Cubs, who are taking on Ausitn Gomber and his 4.50 overall ERA that jumps to 5.89 the first time through the order. Gomber's underlying numbers are somehow worse than his ERA despite his home ball park, so it isn't just a case of skewed numbers from pitching at Coors.
I'm tempted by the Cubs team YRFI, but Javier Assad is a considerable regression candidate with a 3.14 overall ERA and 4.58 xFIP. That suggests he's been lucky, and/or benefited from the weather and Park Factors at Wrigley Field.
He'll have neither on his side tonight, with the weather adding an additional 7% to the expected scoring tonight.
