After a rough start to the season, we got back on track Sunday with two winning picks (posted to the Action App — follow me at action.onelink.me/qhpb/ward).
We'll try to keep that momentum into week two of the MLB season today.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Monday, March 31.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 3/31
Twins vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Chris Paddack vs. Martin Perez
We're starting the day off with a second inning prediction, as I believe that's where the bigger edge is in Twins–White Sox.
This game has a 7.5-run total, and features two starting pitchers — Paddack and Perez — who aren't exactly Cy Young candidates, but have solid first time through the order splits.
Caesars has the traditional NRFI priced at -170, but a much more reasonable -128 line for the second inning. If anything, I'd argue those lines should be flipped. The second inning almost certainly avoids the Twins' best bats, while the White Sox also see a bit of a drop off after their first few hitters.
Other books have better prices on the NRFI (-125 at BetMGM being the best at the time of writing), which I'm also showing slight value on, but the second inning line is a superior option.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Michael Soroka vs. Bowden Francis
I'm fudging the numbers on this projection slightly, since Michael Soroka's sample size as a starter last year wasn't quite enough to qualify for my pitcher database section.
With that said, when he did start, he was bad. His first time through the order ERA as a starter was 5.68, with an xFIP of 5.76. He's taking on a Blue Jays lineup that's fairly stacked at the top, even when using Bo Bichette's extremely down 2024 numbers as a baseline. Switching Bichette's numbers to his career average and/or 2025 projected line makes this one even more appealing.
Washington isn't drawing dead to cash this one for us either, as Bowden Francis was somewhat worse his first time through the order than overall, and the Nats lineup is also somewhat top heavy.
