I missed on both MLB picks on Monday, picking the wrong team to get a YRFI in one game and being an inning too early in the other. Let's get back at it on Tuesday with two more picks.
Now, let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for April 1.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/1
Rangers vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Carson Spiers
The biggest factor here is that the total has jumped to 9.0 at a few books, with others having the 8.5 line juiced strongly to the over. Because of that, nearly any plus-money YRFI is going to project as solid value in my model.
There's more to like, though.
Eovaldi was solid last season, but was worse early in games than late, and he also had poor numbers against lefties and four of the Reds' first five batters are either lefties or switch-hitters.
On the other side, Spiers struggled as a starter and faces plenty of tough bats in the Rangers' first four hitters.
It helps that the two best bats in the Rangers' lineup are lefties, and lefty bats at Great American Ball Park see the biggest jump in home runs of any platoon split/park combination.
Guardians vs. Padres NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs. Michael King
This is the inverse situation of the first pick of the day, with a very fair NRFI price on a game with a 7.5 run total that's starting to get juiced to the under.
Padres starter Michael King had elite numbers the first time through the order last season, with a 2.33 ERA and a 2.69 xFIP.
Logan Allen's numbers were less encouraging (to put it mildly), but he's a southpaw, and the top of the Padres' lineup was considerably worse against lefties last year.
Plus, Petco Park ranks 28th for overall scoring, which is considerably better than Allen's home stadium, which ranks 17th.
If you don't have access to BetRivers, the next best line is at FanDuel (-120), while the widely available -125s are also fine.
