After a soft launch with the Tokyo Series, we're back with a full slate of first-inning bets for the first complete baseball docket of the season.
Last year, we finished with a return of just over 37 units, with an ROI of roughly 8%. That run included an impressive stretch of 19 straight wins in mid-May.
Historically, the best time of the year for baseball betting tends is in the first half of the season. That said, Opening Day can be a bit tricky. Cold weather across most ballparks and a rotation full of aces mean that many games are projecting solidly toward the NRFI, but sportsbooks are well aware of that and have heavily juiced those lines. In short: It’s a long season, don’t go overboard on day one.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Opening Day.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks & Predictions — 3/27
Braves vs. Padres NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Michael King
The Michael King side of the equation is a bit concerning for the NRFI, but the Padres' Opening Day starter posted elite early game splits in 2024. His ERA and xFIP the first time through the order were both in the mid-2s, significantly better than his overall numbers.
On the other side, we have Chris Sale, the reigning NL Cy Young winner. While he wasn't particularly strong early in games compared to his overall numbers, his overall performance was so dominant that it outweighs this factor.
With the full game total set at just 7.0 — and some books even moving to 6.5 — it's enough to grab this slightly juiced FanDuel line.
Giants vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Hunter Greene
I'm showing a slightly lower chance of a first-inning run in this game compared to the Braves-Padres matchup, despite the higher game total.
This is due to the excellent splits from both pitchers. Hunter Greene’s ERA the first time through the order was an absurd 1.39 last season, about half of his overall mark. Webb’s numbers weren’t as drastic, but he still posted a sub-3.00 ERA the first time through the opposing lineup.
Additionally, neither team has a particularly intimidating top of the order, suggesting that any runs scored will likely be distributed more evenly.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele vs. Zac Gallen
The total in this game has been creeping up, and with the current line at 8.5, I'm projecting a slight edge to the YRFI.
Neither pitcher has particularly strong first-time-through-the-order numbers, with Gallen posting a slightly higher xFIP the first time through than his overall mark last year.
Both lineups are also fairly top-heavy, especially if they can get their #4 hitters to the plate in the first inning. This is particularly true for the Diamondbacks against lefties, with both Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel posting very strong platoon splits against southpaws like Steele.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for waiting to see if the game total continues to rise, but I'd prefer to get ahead of it, as the YRFI price would likely worsen in that scenario.
