We broke the losing streak yesterday with a nice 2-0 outing. Unfortunately, there's not a ton worth taking on Thursday's smaller MLB slate, leaving us with just one bet today.
I have one MLB NRFI & YRFIprediction for Thursday, August 15.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Thursday, August 15
Billy Ward's Phillies vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Zack Wheeler
The full game YRFI in this game is projecting fairly close to the prevailing lines throughout the market, giving us a slight edge but not necessarily one worth betting.
However, the run equity is heavily skewed towards the home team, which is implied for more than five runs and have four straight hitters at the top of their lineup with a 130 or better wRC+ on the season.
That's even without taking into account the Phillies platoon splits — they are roughly league-average against righties but tied for the best team in the league against lefties. Both lefties at the top of their order have reverse splits, meaning they hit fellow lefties better than righties.
That leaves us with two logical choices to bet today, the Phillies team YRFI or Phillies moneyline. Given how good Zack Wheeler is I'm opting with the latter, with a best price of +200 on FanDuel. As always, I'm recommending a half-unit bet to win one unit.
