After a week off heading into the busiest time of the betting season, we're back with some first inning bets for today's Major League Baseball slate.
I have two MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday, August 30.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Friday, August 30
Billy Ward's Padres vs. RaysNRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs. Taj Bradley
The Padres offense — which ranks second in wRC+ against righties — makes this one a bit risky, but it's still a solid value in my model.
That's primarily because of the first time through the order splits from both pitchers. Rays' pitcher Taj Bradley has a 2.25 ERA his first time through the order, with Martin Perez slightly better at 2.15.
On top of that, this game is taking place in Tampa Bay, with the second best Park Factor for pitchers in the majors. That makes this a more than fair price on the NRFI.
Billy Ward's Orioles vs. Rockies First Inning Moneyline Pick
Starting Pitchers: Albert Suarez vs. Austin Gomber
As is typical at Coors Field, this game has a big total of 11.5 at FanDuel, with high-juice lines on the typical YRFI.
I'm not interested in paying -150 or so for the standard YRFI, but we have some alternate angles worth exploring. Most of those center around Baltimore, who has by far the stronger projection here.
They're taking on Austin Gomber, who's ERA and xFIP are higher the first time through the order than overall. He's also the rare Rockies pitcher with most of his underlying metrics higher than his 4.70 ERA, meaning his poor results aren't just driven by his home ballpark.
On the other side, Suarez typically starts strong before fading, with his ERA increasing each successive time through the rotation. That gives him a strong chance of holding the awful Rockies lineup scoreless in the first.
While the Orioles YRFI at +150 is also good value, I prefer the extra payout on their first inning moneyline at +245, given the strength of Suarez early in game. As usual with these, play this at half of your typical unit.
