Last week ended on a frustrating note, but hope springs eternal after taking Sunday off.
Let's get back in the win column today.
I have two more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Monday, August 19.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Monday
Billy Ward's Orioles vs MetsNRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. David Peterson
The Orioles and Mets are the second and third-best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and both teams will face lefty starters today.
Neither of those starters is especially imposing. Baltimore's Rogers has ERA and xFIP numbers in the upper fours — both overall and in his first time through the order.
Peterson's overall ERA is 3.04, but his underlying numbers are in the mid-fours or higher. While it's hard to bank on regression at this point in the season, at a minimum, he's not as good as his ERA indicates.
Given the quality of both offenses, that's enough to take the YRFI at low juice in a game with a total of 8.5 (and rising).
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. Astros NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Yusei Kikuchi
As opposed to the earlier game, both teams in this one are on the wrong side of their platoon splits, with Boston's drop-off fairly significant.
That's part of the appeal to the NRFI here, but the starting pitching matchup makes the play viable.
Houck has a sub-2.00 ERA his first time through the order, while Kikuchi's number drops to a solid 3.14 from his overall ERA in the mid-fours.
The total rising after opening at 7.5 isn't ideal, though if it climbs past the current 8.0, there should be even better prices available on the NRFI.
