We cashed the only full-unit play yesterday, while losing the half-unit sprinkle, just barely. That still worked out for a half-unit of profit, my third winning day in a row.
I have two more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Saturday, August 17.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Saturday
Billy Ward's Phillies vs Nationals NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Mackenzie Gore vs. Cristopher Sanchez
We're 1-1 on this bet so far in this series, but that's a solid record considering the line has stayed in the +200 area.
The logic is exactly the same, as the best team in baseball against lefties (Philly) is taking on a mediocre (at best) southpaw from the Nationals. This time it's Mackenzie Gore, who has a 4.18 xFIP his first time through the order.
The traditional YRFI at -115 at Caesars is also a solid play, but Sanchez has fairly good numbers the first time through the order and the Nationals are on the wrong side of their platoon splits.
WeatherEdge also has a huge boost to offense in this game, which makes this bet (and other variations of it) even more appealing. If you're taking the moneyline be sure to make that a half-unit bet, while the full YRFI is also a good option.
Billy Ward's Guardians vs Brewers NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Tanner Bibee
We're getting an off line at BetMGM which makes this pick very interesting there, though I'd take the juicier lines at other books as well.
The reason for the discrepancy in the line is that the game total has moved to 8.0 runs at BetMGM instead of the 7.5s elsewhere. Even if I use the eight-run total in my model, this one still projects fairly strongly to the NRFI though.
Both pitchers have solid splits the first time through the order, while neither lineup is particularly dangerous at the top (particularly after Christian Yelich got hurt.)
Keep an eye on the total in this game if you're betting later — if it jumps all the way to 8.5, I'd probably shy away from the NRFI, but we've got some wiggle room between 7.5 and 8.0.
