My return to MLB NRFI action didn't go well on Friday as we lost both bets.
Let's turn it around over the weekend. I have two MLB NRFI picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Tigers and Royals vs Astros on Saturday, August 31.
MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 31
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. TigersNRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Tarik Skubal
Boston is on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the left-handed Tarik Skubal, losing 10 points in wRC+ as a team. Of course, Skubal isn't just a garden-variety lefty. He's got a 2.58 overall ERA that drops to 1.49 his first time through the order.
Pivetta's numbers aren't quite as good, but he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.20 xFIP his first time through the order. All of his underlying metrics are lower than his ERA, probably due to playing in Boston — the second-best hitters park in all of baseball.
The move to Comerica (22nd in Park Factor) should help for Pivetta, while the Tigers offense is still a bit below average. That's enough to play this one at relatively low juice.
Billy Ward's Royals vs. Astros NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Yusei Kikuchi
This game features two left-handed pitchers, and tow teams with slightly worse wRC+ numbers against lefties. On top of that, both starters have excellent first time through the order numbers.
Cole Ragans comes into the contest with a 2.34 ERA early in games, while Kikuchi is at 3.07 (with a better xFIP). The Houston lineup is a bit more threatening than the Royals, but they have the tougher task against Ragans.
This is a bit of an off-line at FanDuel at -108, with most other books in the -125 to -130 range. Jump on that while it's still up, as I expect these lines will converge later in the day.
