Both picks cashed on Tuesday for a solid winning day.
Let's keep it going on Wednesday.
I have two more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 21.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Wednesday
Billy Ward's Phillies vs. BravesNRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried
This one doesn't seem like a great YRFI candidate at first glance, given that it features two fairly strong starting pitchers.
However, there's a lot to like under the surface.
Both Fried and Nola have higher first-time-through-the-order ERAs than overall, so in a game with an eight-run total, a good bit of that scoring will likely come in the early frames.
More importantly, the Phillies are the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching, with that primarily driven by their top-of-lineup hitters. Their first three bats all have wOBAs of at least .400 against southpaws this season.
The Braves are less of a threat here, but with the full-game YRFI at even money on FanDuel (as well as DraftKings and ESPNBet), we don't need to get cute picking a moneyline or single-team YRFI.
Billy Ward's Rays vs. A's NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Mitch Spence
We have another slightly uncomfortable YRFI today.
This Rays-A's game has a 7.5-run total between two below-average offenses.
However, the price is right, with +115 available at Caesars and plus-money throughout the industry. That makes this a play in a spot I have projected for just over a 50% chance for a YRFI.
Much of that comes down to the pitchers, specifically Mitch Spence. His ERA and xFIP were over 4.00 his first time through the order as a starter, and his numbers as a reliever made his overall stats appear a bit better than they should be.
Pepiot's 3.90 xFIP his first time through the order isn't particularly threatening either, giving this one a reasonable shot of cashing at a very attractive price.
