Our hot streak came to an end Saturday, with a 1-2 day that was the only losing day of the week. Let's get back after it in the new week and try to replicate those previous results.
I have two more MLB NRFI & YRFIpredictions for Monday, August 12.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions
Billy Ward's Cardinals vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Andrew Abbott
Neither starting pitcher in this game is one we typically like to target for YRFIs, but there's a lot to like when we dig a bit deeper.
First is the nine-run total on the game, which typically comes with steeper prices on the YRFI than what we're currently seeing.
Plus, the early game splits on Abbott aren't great, as he has a 4.43 xFIP. Abbott is due for some regression in general, with his FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at least a full run higher than his ERA.
What put me over the top, though, are the platoon splits. The Cardinals have some of the worst numbers against lefties on the season — then they traded for Tommy Pham and got Willson Contreras back from an injury that caused him to miss much of the season.
Those two hitters are both batting in the top three, and both have excellent numbers against southpaws. It doesn't hurt that leadoff hitter Masyn Winn and cleanup man Paul Goldschmidt also have slightly better numbers as well.
There's not a ton of edge on this one, but there's certainly enough for the low juice line offered at Caesars.
Billy Ward's Astros vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Taj Bradley
This one is projecting very well thanks to Taj Bradley's splits.
The Rays starter has a solid 3.07 ERA overall, but it drops below 2.00 his first time through the order. While his xFIP numbers are slightly worse on both counts, that's largely driven by playing at Tropicana Field — the second-best pitcher's park in baseball.
Tampa is at home again today, so we can expect his results to be more in line with his ERA than his ERA predictors.
On the other side, we have Framber Valdez with his good-not-great 3.02 ERA the first time through the order.
While Tampa has great full-season splits against left-handed pitching, those numbers are largely thanks to players no longer with the team, making this a winnable spot for Valdez.
Pick: Astros vs. Rays NRFI (-125) |
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