I finally turned a profit on MLB NRFI picks on Tuesday, going 1-1 (with the loss coming on a half-unit play).
Let's keep that momentum going Wednesday. I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI predictions for Wednesday, September, 4.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Odds for Wednesday, September 4
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs Mets NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Tylor Megill
I'm showing a considerable edge in this contest, mainly thanks to excellent early-game splits from both pitchers.
Boston's Tanner Houck has a solid 3.12 ERA overall, but that number plummets to 1.60 his first time through the order, an elite mark. While his xFIP splits aren't quite as drastic, he's about a run better early in games using that metric than overall.
Megill has a 3.76 xFIP early in games compared to 4.11 overall.
His ERA numbers are a bit uglier, but considering he's thrown just 52.1 innings this season, it's reasonable to expect him to regress toward his underlying stats.
Plus, this game is at Citi Field, which cuts scoring by 6%, with weather that's historically knocked another 15% off average production.
That's not bad considering the price we're getting on the NRFI.
Billy Ward's Yankees vs Rangers YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Nathan Eovaldi
This one is showing a decent edge when you take into account the game total. I'm using the 8.5 mark for my projection, but some shops have moved up to nine.
With the over 8.5s somewhat juiced, a more accurate projection is likely somewhere in the middle.
Plus, it's the top of the Yankees' lineup. They're the best team in baseball against righties, with the two best hitters in baseball (by wRC+) getting guaranteed at-bats.
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi is no pushover, but his first-time-through-the-order ERA and xFIP are both around 3.60.
On the other side, Texas isn't great, but it has Corey Seager, and Marcus Stroman's first-time-through-the-order xFIP is an ugly 4.78.
That's more than enough to take a -115 line.
