Well, that wasn't great. We went 0-2 on Monday's smaller slate, with both picks losing fairly quickly. Let's get back in the win column on a full Tuesday of baseball.
I have two more MLB NRFI & YRFIpredictions for Tuesday, August 13. Be sure to keep an eye on the Tigers vs. Mariners game as well, though. Seattle hasn't declared a starter, but depending on who gets the nod, the NRFI could project very well.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions
Billy Ward's Yankees vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Jonathan Cannon
The Yankees got smoked by the lowly White Sox yesterday, losing by 10 runs despite coming in as a favorite of roughly 3-1. I expect them to come out with some renewed fire today, as they have a team total of 5.5 runs.
They're taking on Jonathan Cannon, who has a 3.91 overall ERA but worse ERA predictors. His xFIP as a starter comes is at 4.76, while his xFIP the first time through the order is a bit higher at 4.86.
Those aren't great numbers, especially against a Yankees team with two of the best hitters in baseball at the top of the lineup.
I'd also be interested in the Yankees first-inning moneyline (+215 at Caesars), but I'm projecting a slightly better value on the Yankees' YRFI. As always with these picks, I'm playing it at a half-unit.
Billy Ward's Dodgers vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Colin Rea
The return of Mookie Betts (and Freddie Freeman) makes the Dodgers an excellent YRFI team once again, with three of the top 15 hitters in wRC+ at the top of their lineup.
They also have a winnable matchup against the Brewers' Colin Rea, who has a 4.48 xFIP his first time through the order. Rea is due for some negative regression in general, with most of his ERA predictors about a full run higher than his actual ERA.
While that makes this game a candidate for a single-team YRFI, Milwaukee has a shot at cashing the bet as well. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone is also due for some general regression, and the Brewers are a top-10 team against right-handed pitching.
Plus, the -110 line at Caesars is fairly generous considering the nine-run total on the game.
