We got back into the win column on Tuesday with a 2-1 day, so let's string a few more of those days together.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and predictions for Wednesday, August 7.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions
Billy Ward's Diamondbacks vs. Guardians (Game 1) NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Ben Lively
After posting a 5.72 ERA as a rookie, Brandon Pfaadt has taken a big step forward this season. He holds a 3.97 overall ERA, with his underlying numbers all even better than that.
That ERA drops to an elite 1.94 the first time through the order, similar to the 2.47 mark posted by Cleveland's Ben Lively.
Those are great numbers for the NRFI, especially considering the excellent price point we're getting.
Plus, this game being in Cleveland rather than Arizona is a big boost to defense, and both lineups are considerably worse against righties than lefties.
It's rare we get this many positive signs in one direction without having to pay a bigger price for it.
Billy Ward's Rays vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Erick Fedde
This is another pick that's primarily about the quality of the pitching, as both starters come into the game with first-time-through-the-order ERAs under 3.00.
(Well, under in the case, of Bradley, who's at an excellent 1.78.)
While we're paying a heavier price for this one than the previous game, the offenses involved are both somewhat worse, which makes up for the discrepancy. FanDuel is also well off the market consensus on that game, while this one has a similar line everywhere.
I wouldn't go much past the current line, but keep in mind, DraftKings has a 20% profit boost on NRFI/YRFI bets today that could cut the juice a bit if you wanted to play it there.
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. Royals NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Kutter Crawford
The pitching matchup here truthfully isn't ideal for the YRFI, with both pitchers holding overall ERA in the threes.
However, Kutter Crawford is noticeably worse early in games, with a 4.01 ERA and 4.83 xFIP his first time through the order.
With the Kansas City lineup becoming one of the better ones in baseball — at least through the first four or so hitters — that gives it a solid chance of getting a run home early.
More importantly, we don't often see plus-money YRFIs on games with an 8.5-run total, and that total seems to be trending upwards.
If it jumps any further, the plus-money will almost certainly be gone.
This would be another good use of the bonus on DraftKings, since plus-money bets are impacted more by the profit boost.
