We had another clean sweep yesterday, bringing the winning streak to 11 in a row dating back to Monday. While that won't last forever, let's see if we can get one more day of it.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Saturday, May 18.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Saturday Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Bryce Elder
We're going back to the well here after this bet hit for us yesterday. Both teams rank inside the top-ten against right-handed pitching, with their best hitters stacked at the top of the lineup.
The pitching matchup is a bit trickier, as the Padres' Darvish has a 0.93 ERA his first time through the order this year. However, his xFIP is a more reasonable 3.26, and the Braves first three hitters are elite.
I'm showing just as much value on the Padres side, thanks to the matchup with Elder. He has a 4.79 overall ERA this season, and a first time through the order xFIP over five.
Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford vs. Miles Mikolas
My model loves this type of NRFI — in which one team is projecting for an extremely low chance to score, but the other is risky — a lot more than I do. With that said, the match is showing this one as a decent value.
The Cardinals are a well below average offense, with only one of their first three hitters (Lars Nootbaar) having an above-average wRC+ this season. They're taking on Kutter Crawford, who's taken a massive leap this season and has a 2.24 ERA through nine starts, with excellent underlying metrics as well.
The Red Sox are a roughly-average offense, but they get to face Miles Mikolas and his 6.19 ERA. Mikolas has been better than that (his xFIP and SIERA are in the low fours) but not exactly good. He's also been better — but not great — early in games than late, with his ERA dropping to 4.67.
Given the lack of a threat from the Cardinals side (and the eight run total) this is worth playing, but the Red Sox half of the inning will be scary.
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Zac Gallen
I know, Tigers NRFIs haven't treated us well this season. I also saw Detroit score 13 runs last night against Arizona — though none of them came in the first inning, and that game followed two shutouts for the Tigers.
The total tonight is just 7.5 runs, as two solid pitchers square off. Flaherty has been awesome for the Tigers, with an overall xFIP of 2.13 that drops to 1.76 his first time through the order. Gallen is similarly solid, with a 3.45 overall mark and 2.92 first time through the order figure.
Given that neither offense is particularly intimidating, I'm crossing my fingers and rolling the dice on a Tigers play today.
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