MLB NRFI & YRFI Tuesday: 4 Model Picks & Predictions
Photo by Kavin Mistry/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays)
We had just two MLB NRFI picks on Monday, but we cashed both of them for a good start to the week. Now, we're back on a busier day of baseball, with every team in action on Tuesday.
We have four more MLB NRFI & YRFImodel picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 25.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Tuesday: 4 Model Picks & Predictions
Guardians vs. Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs. Cole Irvin
While my model isn't projecting this one as a huge edge, there's a lot to like that the model isn't taking into account (namely, the platoon splits for both teams' top of the order in this lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup).
Baltimore has an essentially identical wRC+ against lefties and righties. However, each of its first three hitters has a batting average at least 24 points higher against southpaws, led by Adley Rutschman's absurd 172-point jump.
Even No. 4 hitter, lefty Gunnar Henderson, loses just 12 points in average against lefties, making this a net positive.
On the Cleveland side, it hits lefties about 10% better overall, though it's less concentrated in the top of its lineup.
Plus, we have a total that's gone up to 9.5 at some books and heavily juiced to the over — where it's at 9.0 — with weather conditions that boost scoring around 18%.
That's enough for the YRFI at -120, though I wouldn't go much lower.
Phillies vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Tarik Skubal
We have another lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup in Detroit tonight.
This time, it helps one team (the Phillies) on paper, while putting the other team on the wrong side of its platoon splits.
That might not matter though, given the quality of the starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal remains the front runner for the AL Cy Young, with a 2.50 overall ERA that drops to 1.57 his first time through the order.
Ranger Suarez trails only Zack Wheeler for the best odds on the NL side, with a 1.75 overall ERA that rises slightly to 1.85 his first time through the order.
Both starters have ERA predictors slightly higher than their actual ERAs, but those numbers are still well below three across the board.
That makes this a great pick at fairly low juice on BetRivers, and I'd play it up to the FanDuel line of -130.
Mariners vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Zack Littell
Both starting pitchers in this contest see their ERAs and xFIPs drop considerably the first time through the order.
Between that and the paltry 7.5-run total, that's a great start for the NRFI.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Brayan Bello
These are two tricky starters to project.
Kevin Gausman has a 4.24 ERA and 5.15 xERA, but his other ERA predictors are in the mid threes.
Brayan Bello has a 4.83 ERA but somewhat better ERA predictors, ranging from the upper threes to just below his actual ERA.
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