It was another rough one on Thursday's smaller slate, as I dropped both of my MLB NRFI bets.
The good news is that every team is in action on Friday, so we can be more selective. I have three YRFI/NRFI picks for a full day of baseball.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Friday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions for Friday
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Colin Rea
The big story of this game is the weather. According to Weather Edge, the conditions at Wrigley on Friday boost scoring by an average of 23% and home runs by 16%.
While that's based on a small sample size, it's hard to argue it logically. The temperature forecast is around 80 degrees, with 20+ mph winds blowing out to left center.
Both teams have big power threats at the top of their lineups, with Corbin Carroll and Kyle Tucker both among the league leaders in home runs. Somebody should be able to take advantage of the conditions.
Both pitchers were also slightly worse early in games (based on xFIP) last season, and Burnes has struggled heavily this year.
I typically don't take YRFIs at such heavy juice, but the model is showing a big edge. If you want a higher reward option, I also like the over 1.5 first-inning runs line at DraftKings at +165.
Marlins vs. Phillies NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler is struggling a bit, giving up nine earned runs across his last two starts. However, he's still yet to have allowed a run in the first inning this year, and his first-time-through-the-order splits are solid.
His ERA indicators are also all about a run lower than his actual ERA, suggesting he's run into some bad luck.
Those two factors combined are enough to trust him against the Marlins, who aren't exactly an intimidating offense.
The other side is where things get interesting. Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 due to injury and has a 4.70 ERA/3.94 xFIP so far in 2025. However, his first-time-through-the-order ERA is a much stronger 1.13, with that number rising sharply each time through the lineup.
This is another spot where it's a bit juicier than I'd typically prefer, but the projections are strong enough that we can accept it.
Both BetMGM and Caesars have the -140 line, and I'd take it to the widely available -150.
Dodgers vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Jacob deGrom
Yamamoto is the archetype of a pitcher that you have to get to early. In his MLB career, he has a 3.94 first-time-through-the-order ERA and a 2.65 overall mark.
To put that another way, he's allowed 23 runs in 45.2 innings his first trip through, but just 13 runs in the other 66.1 innings pitched.
That's especially encouraging since the Rangers are the less likely YRFI team here.
On the other side, we have the Dodgers, with their ridiculously stacked lineup, taking on Jacob deGrom.
DeGrom's return from injury doesn't look bad on paper, but his underlying metrics suggest he's just been lucky. His first-time-through-the-order ERA is 3.00, but his xFIP is nearly double that at 5.89.
Now he gets his toughest matchup of the year, giving the Dodgers a solid shot at scoring early.
I'll take that at plus-money.
