We lost the lone pick on Thursday's smaller slate, but fortunately, every team is in action on Friday.
I have four picks across the full slate tonight.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Friday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — April 25, 2025
Rays vs. Padres NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Michael King
We have a matchup between two solid offenses, but also two strong pitchers, in San Diego and my model has the pitchers coming out on top.
The Rays' Baz has a 3.22 ERA but better underlying numbers. He gets a huge boost in terms of Park Factor moving from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa to Petco Park in San Diego. The latter is the second-best pitcher's park in baseball, and the weather is also somewhat pitcher-friendly tonight.
The Padres' King has a 2.59 overall ERA and has allowed just one run through 11+ innings his first time through the order this season. He also has the easier matchup of the two, as the top of the Rays lineup isn't particularly intimidating.
The NRFI is a bit heavily juiced — which will become a theme today — but worthwhile in a game with a seven-run total.
Marlins vs. Mariners NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Cal Quantrill vs. Logan Gilbert
Part of the solid projection in the above matchup is based on the park factor in San Diego. Seattle is even better for defense, with the typical game producing 17% less scoring than the league average.
That's enough to take a shot on Quantrill against the Mariners. The Marlins starter is off to a terrible start to the season with an ERA over 8.00, but he's allowed just one run his first time through the order (eight innings) compared to 15 runs in the 9 1/3 innings he's pitched afterward.
On the other side, Miami is at best a mediocre offense and will be facing an elite pitcher in the best pitcher's park in baseball. I'm not too worried about that side.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Zac Gallen
It doesn't feel great taking a YRFI against last year's NL Cy Young winner, Chris Sale. However, he doesn't appear to be the same pitcher this year. Sale's ERA is over 6.00, and he's allowed a first-inning run in four of his five starts to date.
Plus, the Diamondbacks are a top-five overall offense this season, with their three and four hitters on the stronger side of their platoon splits against the left-handed Sale.
That's just one side of the equation. On the other, we have a solid Braves lineup taking on Gallen, whose overall and first-time-through-the-order ERAs are both over 5.00. The Braves lineup isn't quite the YRFI machine they will be upon the return of Ronald Acuna Jr., but they're still a tough out.
With an 8.5 run total and this game in a hitter's park, we'll take that at even money.
Pirates vs. Dodgers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has an ERA below 1.00 this season and is taking on a Pirates team that ranks bottom-five in wRC+ overall and against righties. Crazier things have happened, but the risk on that side of the equation is very low.
With that out of the way, the other half of this matchup is much more intriguing. On the one hand, we have the Dodgers. They have the best top-of-the-order lineup in baseball, with Mookie Betts currently the worst of the group.
However, they're taking on Paul Skenes. The sophomore sensation finished his rookie year with a 1.96 ERA and sits at 2.87 this season.
More importantly, he's dominant early in games. His first-time-through-the-order ERA this season sits at 0.00, and the earliest he's been scored on was in the third inning. It quite literally doesn't get any better than that, so I'm willing to take the risk, even against the Dodgers.
