We went 1-2 on Thursday, our first losing day of the week, so let's see if we can end on a high note today.
I have three picks for Friday's slate, with a couple of alternatives depending on your risk tolerance.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Friday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — 4/11
Pirates vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Brady Singer
I wasn't especially excited about this bet — until I saw that BetRivers had the YRFI as high as +120.
In a game where the total has moved up to 8.5 at most books, that's a pretty generous line on the YRFI, even without any other information. On top of that, Bailey Falter also had slight reverse splits last year — meaning his xFIP was a bit higher his first time through the order than overall.
The downside is that neither of these lineups are especially dangerous at the top. That's somewhat mitigated by this game being in Cincinnati, though. Great American Ball Park boosts scoring by about 10% over an average park, which is enough to make this worth taking.
If you don't have access to BetRivers (or any similar books that use their lines), I'd take this down to the +110 line at DraftKings.
Marlins vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Cal Quantrill
The Marlins starting pitcher is still officially undecided, which makes this bet slightly risky. However, most reports are that it will be Cal Quantrill, who in 2024 had a considerably lower first-time through-the-order ERA than overall, as did Nationals starter Mitchell Parker, who has also gotten off to a hot start in 2025 and hasn't allowed a run until the third time through the order in either of his two starts this year.
This one is more about the offenses, though, as neither team has any scary hitters at the top of the lineup. The first three Marlins hitters are all especially bad against lefties, which also helps strengthen this line.
I wouldn't fault anyone for waiting on an official pitcher announcement before making this bet, but you also run the risk of the line moving.
Mets vs. Athletics NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. JP Sears
Due to a variety of factors, I have the Mets specifically as about as likely to score a first-inning run as both teams combined in Marlins-Nationals tonight.
One of those factors is Athletics' starter JP Sears, who had a 5.61 xFIP his first time through the order last season. That trend has continued this year, with a better-but-not-great 4.05 mark.
Sears is a lefty, and three of the Mets' first four bats have a higher wOBA against southpaws dating back to the start of last season. That includes, surprisingly, fellow lefty Juan Soto. The A's also have a good shot to get there, as Griffin Canning had a 5.92 ERA his first time through the order last season.
I'm splitting my exposure between the full-game YRFI at -120 (0.6 units to win 0.5) and the Mets team-specific mark at +165 (0.5 units). That way, we break even if the Athletics score and turn a very solid profit if the Mets (or both teams) do, while still only risking just over a full unit.
