Our lone MLB YRFI pick lost yesterday — though Tigers cleanup hitter Spencer Torkelson homered in his first at-bat, he didn’t come up until the second inning.
Let's turn it around Friday with two more MLB NRFI picks for Friday, June 27.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions, Picks, Odds
Cardinals vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Luis L. Ortiz
The 8.5-run total in this game is somewhat juiced to the over, so I want to get in front of any possible line movement by being on the YRFI early. We'd almost certainly see a price adjustment to the YRFI if and when the game total moves to 9.0.
Most of the projection is based on the Cardinals getting to Ortiz. They're a top-10 offense against righties, with two of their first three hitters sporting 130 or higher wRC+ marks. Ortiz isn't bad, but his first time through the order ERA and xFIP are both over 4.00.
On the other side, the Guardians have a tougher task against Sonny Gray, who has strong numbers both early and overall. The Guardians have Jose Ramirez, though, and solid hitting weather that boosts scoring about 11%.
That's enough to create some value on the game YRFI, but the Cardinals team YRFI of +235 at DraftKings is also interesting.
Nationals vs. Angels NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Jose Soriano
This game has an 8.5-run total, with the Angels as solid favorites thanks to the pitching matchup against Jake Irvin.
Irvin has a 4.18 ERA but has been lucky that it's not higher, with his xERA nearly a full run more. His first time through the order ERA and xFIP are both around 5.00 as well, which is the more important factor for first inning purposes.
The Nationals have a solid shot at cashing this YRFI as well despite a tougher pitching matchup. Jose Soriano is solid, but struggles somewhat against lefties. They have a wOBA about 30 points higher than righties against him this year.
Washington's lineup starts out with four straight left-handed bats, two of whom — CJ Abrams and James Wood — have wRC+ marks over 130 on the season.
