My app-only weekend picks went 2-1 on Sunday, bringing us back into profitability on the season. Be sure to follow me to get notifications for all of my YRFI/NRFI plays.
Weather is the big story on Monday so one or more of these bets might end up not happening, but I've identified three bets for Monday's slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Monday, April 7.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/7
Yankees vs Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Casey Mize
The Tigers moved up this originally scheduled evening game to 3 p.m. local time, largely due to the cold weather that's coming in. As such, the best hitting conditions will be early in the game, with mid-40s temperatures offset by a strong wind blowing out to the outfield.
In a game with an 8.5 run total, that means the scoring should be shifted to the early part of the contest. On top of that, both pitchers have well below average early game splits, and both lineups are top heavy.
That's before we get to the presence of Aaron Judge, whose guaranteed at bat in the first inning helps the cause as well.
Twins vs. Royals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Michael Lorenzen
I have a nearly identical projection on this game as the other AL Central matchup above, though we're arriving at it slightly differently.
While there's no Aaron Judge-level hitter at the top of either lineup, half of the first six hitters across the two teams had a 150 or above wRC+ last season. We also have two pitchers who are both not great overall, and more likely than the average starter to get hit early.
Between those two factors, this is a steal at plus money, and a solid bet down to -115.
Rangers vs. Cubs and Reds vs. Giants NRFI Parlay
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Justin Steele and Logan Webb vs. Hunter Greene
I never thought I'd be giving out a parlay as the recommended way to play some NRFIs, but here we are.
Cubs/Rangers has absolutely brutal weather, with the temperature around freezing and a strong wind blowing in. It also has a six-run total, which leads to very heavy juice on the NRFI. Instead of laying all of that, let's throw it into a parlay with the other game projecting strongly to the no.
That would be Red/Giants, which features two of the best NRFI pitchers around in Logan Webb and Hunter Greene. Both are solid pitchers all around, but even better early in games. With just one truly scary hitter at the top of either lineup (Elly De La Cruz), it's a reasonably safe second leg to add here.
I'm betting this one for a full unit, since there's a reasonable chance that the Cubs game gets postponed and this turns into a straight bet on Reds vs. Giants. It could be worth shopping around for the best odds on that game specifically rather than the parlay in its entirety, just in case that ends up being the only bet.
