We got off to a rough start to the week, missing both MLB NRFI and YRFI bets on Monday's smaller slate.
Fortunately, every team is in action on Tuesday, giving us more games to choose from. I have three more NRFI picks tonight.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Tuesday, April 15.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/15
Mariners vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Nick Lodolo
The only thing stopping this from being a massive value is the game's location. Rather than being played in Seattle (30th in Park Factor for bats), it's in Cincinnati (third for hitters).
However, everything else points to the NRFI.
Luis Castillo has a 2.12 ERA this season and has yet to allow a run the first time through the order. That ties in with his numbers from last year, when he had some of the starkest (positive) early-game splits in my database.
One of the few starters with even better early-game numbers was Lodolo, whose xFIP and ERA were about a run lower early in games than overall last season and throughout his career.
There are some solid bats at the top of both lineups but no truly great hitters, making this a strong play at the current odds.
Red Sox vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs. Ryan Pepiot
Walker Buehler starts are approaching automatic YRFI bets for me. His ERA and xFIP were higher the first time through the order last year than overall, and he's opened the 2025 campaign with a 5.74 ERA.
Plus, Buehler starting also means we get the Red Sox's bats. Their lineup opens with four well-above-average hitters, who project to account for the bulk of their offense.
Pepiot had solid early-game numbers last year but has been a bit lucky this season. His ERA indicators range from one to two runs higher than his 3.38 mark this year.
That gives both teams a reasonably strong chance to score here, especially indoors in what looks to be a hitter-friendly park in Tampa (though it's too early to have solid data on just how hitter-friendly).
Royals vs. Yankees NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Max Fried
The full-game YRFI is projecting reasonably well here, too, but I'm showing a better value on the Yankees' team-specific line.
They're taking on Michael Wacha, who had a slightly higher first-time-through-the-order xFIP than overall last season. He also has a 6.00 ERA his first time through the order this year.
Plus, the Yankees get to bring Aaron Judge to the plate in the first inning. Judge headlines a very strong overall group. We're also projecting strong winds blowing out in New York, which should be a boost to both overall scoring and home runs.
The Yankees' team line is a half-unit bet for me, but I'd also be fine with the game line of -110 at BetMGM for a full unit.
