Patrick Corbin seems to have actually gained superpowers from his spider bite, and we lost a YRFI in the Mets game that produced 24 runs, leading to a somewhat improbable-in-hindsight 0-2 day yesterday.
We can fortunately be more selective today with every team in action. I have four MLB NRFI/YRFI picks for the full slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Tuesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — April 29, 2025
Yankees vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson is making his first MLB start of the year for the Orioles, and it's not a great spot for him to be welcomed back into action. He's taking on the Yankees, who rank second in the MLB in wRC+ against righties.
Last season, Gibson's overall ERA was 4.24, and it jumped to 4.62 his first time through the order. He was also considerably worse against lefties, allowing a .354 wOBA compared to .287 against righties.
The Yankees first three hitters include two lefties and Aaron Judge, making this an incredibly difficult spot. The full
YRFI is solid at -112 at BetRivers, but most of the value is on the New York side.
Cubs vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Andrew Heaney
Like the game above, I'm projecting value on the full YRFI, but considerably more on the single-team version.
The gist of the projection is that I'm having a hard time believing 34-year-old Andrew Heaney, a career 4.37 ERA pitcher, has actually improved enough to justify his 1.72 ERA this season. A matchup against the Cubs, who rank second in wRC+ against lefties, is likely to expose him.
Last season, Heaney's 4.24 first time through the order xFIP was slightly higher than his overall mark, and we also have weather in Pittsburgh that boosts scoring more than 16% according to Weather Edge.
All of those factors together are more than enough at more than two-to-one odds.
Royals vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs. Taj Bradley
Outside of shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals offense has been awful this year. They rank 29th in wRC+ against righties, and that's including Witt's 131 mark.
That means on the Royals side, we just need Taj Bradley to get through Witt to feel good about our chances. Bradley has a 5.08 ERA this season, but his xERA is just 3.65, and in his career he's been much better early in games.
The bigger risk comes from the Rays against Michael Lorenzen, who has been solid this season with a 3.90 ERA, but that mark drops to 1.64 his first time through the order. More importantly, the best Rays hitters are in the middle of the lineup not the top, so the first inning is less of a risk.
My official pick is the NRFI, but this is also an interesting yes runs second inning spot at +100 on FanDuel.
Giants vs. Padres NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Nick Pivetta
Anytime we have a 6.5-run total it's going to lead to a strong NRFI projection, and that's the case here.
Pivetta and Webb both have 2025 ERAs that start with a 1, and have historically been better early in games than late.
Having Fernando Tatis Jr. getting a guaranteed at-bat makes this a little uncomfortable, but outside of that there's not any major concerns. Especially in San Diego, one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball.
