We went 2-1 yesterday on MLB NRFI/YRFI bets, with one of the wins coming from a two-pick parlay across three plus-money bets.
There’s not as much value on Tuesday, despite the larger slate, but I’ve found two bets worth taking today.
Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Tuesday, April 8.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — Tuesday
Yankees vs Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Tarik Skubal
I'm going back to the well with Yankees–Tigers after missing the YRFI yesterday, mainly due to the plus-money lines available for Tuesday’s game.
It’s a tricky spot because we have two solid starting pitchers and extremely pitcher-friendly weather, but my model still shows this game as close to 50/50 for a run due to the top-heavy nature of both teams' lineups.
Additionally, all three of the Yankees' first hitters had a better wOBA against lefties than righties last season, even (surprisingly) Cody Bellinger. Given Tarik Skubal’s mediocre early game splits, that’s enough to tip the scales, even with the low total in the game.
I’m playing this as a half-unit bet and would take the +112 at BetRivers, the +110 at BetMGM or the +108 at FanDuel.
Cardinals vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Paul Skenes
I don't like to give out bets requiring this much juice usually, but in this case it's justified.
Not only is Paul Skenes one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he's also among the top five in ratio of his first time through the order xFIP relative to his overall xFIP in my database.
On the other side, Sonny Gray has solid early game splits of his own, and he's taking on a relatively weak Pirates lineup.
This game has a total of just 6.5 runs, and even worse weather for hitters than in Detroit. Put that all together and my fair value on the NRFI is around -180, giving us a solid edge here.
