I was close to a big day on Tuesday, but a missed double play and both teams scoring in the second inning led to losses on two of my three MLB NRFI picks. Let's get some variance back in our direction on Wednesday, September 11.
I have four MLB NRFI picks and predictions for Mets vs Blue Jays, Royals vs Yankees, Padres vs Mariners and Brewers vs Giants on Wednesday.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Model Picks, Predictions for Wednesday
Billy Ward's Mets vs Blue Jays YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Bowden Francis
I have the Mets as fairly likely to score a first-inning run here as they take on Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays.
Francis has solid overall numbers, but his first-time-through-the-order ERA (both as a starter and a reliever) is over 5.00, with similar xFIP marks.
That's not a good sign for him against a strong Mets lineup; their first four hitters all have wRC+ numbers of at least 120 on the season.
The Mets first inning moneyline of +320 is also interesting, but the Mets YRFI is juicy enough for me that I don't want to get too cute.
With the big odds, this is also a half-unit play for me.
Billy Ward's Royals vs Yankees NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Luis Gil
While I don't love taking Yankees NRFIs, they're on the wrong side of their platoon splits by a fairly wide margin against Royals lefty Cole Ragans, who also has very strong early-game numbers.
His ERA is just 2.25 his first time through the order, with a still-solid 3.33 overall mark.
While we can project that a bit higher due to the matchup, he's still a very solid starter.
On the other side, Luis Gil's first-time-through-the-order ERA is below 2.00, and he has a much softer matchup against the Royals.
With a fairly reasonable -113 price tag on the NRFI, that makes it worth taking the risk on the Yankees' sluggers.
Billy Ward's Padres vs Mariners NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Bryan Woo
One team I do like taking NRFIs on is the Mariners, especially at home, where they have the best pitcher's park in baseball that cuts scoring by 17% on average.
This is an especially good spot thanks to the starting pitchers involved. Bryan Woo's overall ERA is just 2.36, with Michael King at 3.10. Looking at first-time-through-the-order numbers, Woo's ERA drops all the way down to an absurd 1.05, with King at 2.47.
It's also helpful that the stronger pitcher here (Woo) is taking on the tougher offense.
In a game with just a seven-run total, that makes the NRFI worth it — even at a steep price tag.
Billy Ward's Brewers vs Giants NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Blake Snell
This game has the same 7.0-run total as the Mariners game above, but we're getting a considerably better price on the NRFI.
To be fair, it's not quite as strong of a pitching matchup. Blake Snell's numbers are comparable to Woo's (especially early in games), while Colin Rea is a bit weaker than any of the other pitchers in these contests.
However, we also don't have a standout offense like the Padres to worry about, and both teams are on the wrong side of their platoon splits.
I have a slightly higher projection for the odds of a first-inning run in this one, but not enough to keep us off the NRFI at -130.
If you're uncomfortable paying this much juice on the last two picks, it would also make sense to parlay them together at solid plus-money odds.
