I had a solid day on MLB NRFI & YRFI picks yesterday, hitting two of three picks for a profit of one unit.
Let's try to repeat that success today — I have three more MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday, September 25.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Wednesday — 9/25
Billy Ward's Cubs vs Phillies NRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad vs. Cristopher Sanchez
The eight-run total in this one is a little high for what we typically like to target, but that means we're getting a better price on the NRFI than usual.
Plus, the under is heavily juiced, with some books dropping to 7.5, so we could grab the NRFI now and get ahead of some line movement.
Both starting pitchers have overall ERAs in the low threes, with better marks early in games. Both teams are also on the wrong side of their platoon splits, with the Phillies' first four hitters all having better wOBA marks against lefties while they face a righty tonight.
That's enough at the current price, with more wiggle room if the game total drops further.
Billy Ward's Braves vs Mets NRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. David Peterson
We're returning to the well with this game after cashing the NRFI yesterday. We're paying a premium this time, but given the pitchers on the mound, it's worth it.
Presumptive NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale has a 2.38 overall ERA that drops to 2.10 his first time through the order. Those are excellent marks, but he's the worst of the two starters in terms of first-time-through-the-order ERA in this game.
David Peterson has an even stronger 1.20 ERA early in games, with a rock-solid 3.08 overall ERA.
Both teams are reasonably tough against lefties, but we can deal with that, given the quality of the arms on the mound.
Billy Ward's Twins vs Marlins NRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson
I built my NRFI model to predict this type of game. Thanks to two mediocre starting pitchers, our team has a middling 8.0/8.5 run total.
However, I expect those runs to come once the starters tire. Both pitchers have overall ERAs north of four, but first-time through-the-order ERAs in the mid-twos.
The Marlins have won one of the league's worst offenses, so most of the risk comes from just one side. That's a pretty significant edge at a best line of -111.
