It’s a new week in MLB and our experts have highlighted the bet that they’re all over for tonight’s slate of games. We have 11 games on the docket, but Sean Zerillo and Charlie DiSturco have their eyes on the same wager tonight.
Check out their breakdowns below, and listen to the full Monday “Payoff Pitch” episode below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | Zerillo: Twins F5 (-175) |
| 7:40 p.m. | DiSturco: Twins F5 (-175) |
Twins F5 (-175) vs. Royals
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
We have talked about the Royals' home-splits so many times this season. They're 13th in WRC+ at home and 24th on the road.
The biggest difference is the strikeout minus walk rate. Kansas City is the most difficult team to strikeout at home but 29th on the road in walk rate and are closer to league average at home.
I favor the Twins offensively in this matchup and give them the big pitching advantage in both starting pitchers and the bullpen. Minnesota has a top-10 bullpen, while the Royals' relief corps are in the bottom five. The Royals made some additions at the deadline but still haven't sured it up.
Twins F5 (-175) vs. Royals
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
This pitching matchup is what I look at outside of all the home-road splits that Sean just mentioned.
Brady Singer has a 3.03 ERA versus a 4.56 xERA. All indicators show Singer is about a 4-5 type of pitcher and a No. 4 starter. He faces Pablo Lopez, who has a 4.74 ERA but a 3.5 xERA. Everything tells me Lopez is a No. 2 starter and the significantly better pitcher in this matchup.
Why hasn't that translated to success? Because Lopez isn't stranding guys as much as he used to and has really only had a problem with allowing home runs this season.
With how bad the Royals' offense has been on the road this year, I like taking the Twins first five and fading Brady Singer.
