It's a full Tuesday in Major League Baseball, with all 30 teams set to take the field, a few afternoon games and a ton of opportunities for betting value.
Our analysts are on four of those 15 games with six bets total, starting with dueling picks in the afternoon affair between the Guardians and Reds. We have totals, full-game moneylines, team totals and more to recommend.
Here are our six best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 8:05 p.m. ET | |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tanner McGrath: I’m willing to sell high on the Guardians after they exploded for 27 runs in a two-game series against Kansas City.
Cleveland probably shouldn’t be favored in Cincinnati, anyway. Especially against Tyler Mahle, a guy who I’m high on this season and who had a solid debut on Opening Day. He struck out seven Braves over five three-hit innings that day, and that’s following up a 2021 season where he pitched to a 3.74 xFIP over 180 IP.
Mahle’s fastball intrigues me. He added a couple of ticks of velocity over the last two years, and his strikeout rate on the pitch has jumped 8% as a result.
Meanwhile, the Guardians were 18th in MLB in weighted fastball runs created last season (-2.9), and I’m expecting Mahle to blow four-seamers by Cleveland over another five or six innings.
Shane Bieber is the reason why Cleveland is favored, but he didn’t look infallible in his first start. The former Cy Young winner managed only 4 2/3 innings against the Royals with an xFIP over 4.15. And backing him up is a Cleveland 'pen that’s projected to be in the back-half of the league this season.
Plus, I wouldn't underestimate the Reds' lineup. Cincinnati still features future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and the reigning NL ROY winner Jonathan India. India hit 15 of his 21 homers in 2021 after the All-Star break, so I'm excited to see him tap into his raw power.
As home underdogs, I’ll take a shot with Cinci in this spot.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Jules Posner: There seemed to be a lot of concern about Cleveland Guardians' ace Shane Bieber's velocity in his first start of the season.
Hopefully with more live reps and more confidence, Bieber can take another step forward against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.
Tyler Mahle was lights-out in his 2022 debut, throwing five scoreless innings against the defending champion Atlanta Braves in Atlanta.
However, considering Mahle's history at home, he could be in trouble.
Last season, Mahle posted a 5.63 ERA at home and a 5.16 FIP at home. This shows that he's got a full-fledged case of the willie's at Great American Ballpark. That's right. The willies.
Additionally, the Guardians' offense looked potent their last couple of games in Kansas City. They plated 27 runs in the second two games after posting just one run in the first two games.
It looks like the Guardians are playing with some confidence, they have their ace going, and the Reds' ace has been diagnosed with a serious case of the willies at home. The Guards ML looks like a good play here at -110. Would still be worth a spin up to the -150 threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
DJ James: Yusei Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last season with a 91.9 mph Average Exit Velocity. This is atrocious, considering the potency of power hitters in the New York lineup.
Kikuchi mainly relies on a cutter/four-seamer mix, but most of the Yankees' lineup in 2021 held a .330+ xwOBA against these pitches from southpaws.
Last season, the Yankees also had a 110 wRC+ against southpaws. In addition, only 15.9% of their hits were “soft,” so this could be a nightmare for Kikuchi. For a team that hit 72 bombs off of lefties, it is hard to envision a scenario where they do not at least hit a couple in this matchup.
Building off of that, the Toronto bullpen is not too strong behind Jordan Romano. Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber are decent, but depending on availability, the Blue Jays may be strapped for bullpen innings after playing on Monday. If Kikuchi takes an early exit, they will just need someone to take up the mop-up duty.
Taking a side here is hard with how strong the Blue Jays' lineup is, but the Yankees will put up runs. Take this line to 5.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins
Mike Ianniello: The high-powered Dodgers lineup managed to score just 11 runs in three games in Denver. They hit just one home run, and as everybody expected, it came from Austin Barnes. Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy and Mookie Betts are a combined 9-for-52 (.173) so far this season.
Do we really expect their struggles to continue much longer? Especially against Chris Archer. After posting a 5.19 ERA in 2019, Archer missed the entire 2020 season and most of 2021. He returned at the end of the year, making five starts and finishing with a 4.66 ERA and 4.79 xFIP. His velocity is way down and his HardHit% is way is up.
Pitching for the Dodgers will be Andrew Heaney, who was one of the worst pitchers in the league last season. His 5.83 ERA was the third worst in the entire league among pitchers with at least 120 innings. His 2.01 HR/9 rate was the fifth highest.
To put it bluntly, both of these pitchers stink and these two offenses are capable of doing plenty of damage off of them. If the Dodgers finally wake up and get going like everybody expects, this one could go over in a hurry. I played over 9 late Monday and would play over 9.5 down to -110.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins
Doug Ziefel: I don't think I'm breaking any news here when I say that Chris Archer has reached the end of his rope. Archer missed the majority of 2021 with yet another injury. Although he was not great in his 19 innings of work, his fastball velocity was down nearly 2 mph, and it was often hit as he had an expected ERA of 5.96.
Last year was just the most recent addition to Archer's decline as he has not had an ERA under four since 2015. Not to mention, this daunting Dodgers lineup has touched him up in the past.
Over 84 plate appearances, the big Dodgers bats are hitting a combined .338, slugging .706 and have a wOBA of .406 against Archer.
Andrew Heaney does not instill a ton of confidence either. Heaney had the reputation with the Angels as an underrated pitcher as he had the stuff to put away guys but just couldn't stay on the mound.
In 2021, we saw Heaney allow a ton of hard contact as he pitched to a 5.83 ERA and was in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage and average exit velocity.
Lastly, on top of facing a lineup of solid right-handed bats, Heaney does not get off to hot starts. Historically, April is the worst month of Heaney's career as he holds a 5.89 ERA in the month.
So, look for runs to be put up early and often in Minnesota.
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
| 8:05 p.m. ET |
Brad Cunningham: The Rockies were one of the best lineups against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .266 average and .334 wOBA. They did lose one of their best hitters against lefties in Trevor Story, but adding Kris Bryant cancels out that void considering Bryant has a .406 wOBA against lefties for his career.
They're facing a pretty below-average lefty in Martin Perez, so this a great matchup for Colorado's lineup. Perez posted the highest xERA (5.54) and Hard Hit% allowed (42.7%) of his career in Boston in 2021, per FanGraphs. At age 31, you have to imagine he's on the downward trajectory of his career.
Chad Kuhl spent four seasons in Pittsburgh, but his 2021 wasn't actually that bad. His xERA was a 4.82, which was his best mark since 2018. He mainly utilizes a slider, going to it 46.1% of the time and had decent success on it last year, holding opponents to a xBA and producing a 33.4% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. Texas was 19th with a -24.2 run value against sliders last season.
I have Kuhl and the Rockies projected at +117 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +135 and would play it down to +130.
