We have another busy schedule in Major League Baseball, with 15 games on the loaded slate.
Action Network analysts Tanner McGrath and BJ Cunningham have uncovered two plays they love on the docket, with one being an intriguing Single Game Parlay and the other a straight moneyline bet in a West Coast battle. Let's take a look at their in-depth analysis and top picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Reds vs. Giants
Tanner McGrath: On the whole, Wade Miley is having a great season. Most of his statistics have improved from a disastrous 2020 and he even recoded an impressive no-hitter against Cleveland back on May 7.
However, he followed up that incredible performance with a disastrous outing at Coors Field. He allowed eight runs on 11 hits through three innings, leading Cincinnati to a tough loss. The issue with that start was that the Rockies posted a .733 BABIP in his defeat.
With a whiff rate that ranks in the 21st percentile among qualified pitchers, Miley likes to pitch to contact and his 84.1 average exit velocity shows he's been effective at doing so.
However, he's also been lucky. His season long BABIP of .237 is unsustainable, which should regress toward his career average of .304, and his outing against the Rockies was the first big step for the regression machine. I'm expecting Miley to allow more and more hits as the season goes on, and thus more runs.
Which brings us to Buster Posey. The San Francisco veteran has Miley's ticket, as he's 11 for 28 lifetime against him with three doubles and three walks to just one strikeout. Most importantly, Posey exposes Miley's pitching-to-contact vulnerability, as he gets the barrel on his pitches and has posted a .557 expected batting average against him in the process.
Therefore, I'm banking on Posey knocking Miley around a bit and recording at least one hit.
With PointsBet offering a single-game parlay, I'm playing Posey to record a hit and Giants moneyline at +120 odds, where I can pair Posey's base-knocking ability with a hot Mike Yastrzemski (1.049 OPS over his past eight games) and a resurgent Kevin Gausman (1.84 ERA, .84 WHIP).
Astros vs. Athletics
Brad Cunningham: Even at 37 years old, Zack Greinke is still effective. He's posted.a 3.85 xERA and 4.01 xFIP, while also keeping his BB/9 incredibly low at 1.92, per Fangraphs. The reason he's been so effective? He's been avoiding a lot of hard contact.
Greinke's hard contact percentage is only 25.9%, which is his lowest mark since 2006. His changeup and curveball have been incredibly effective this season, holding opponents under a .260 wOBA against both pitches and producing a whiff rate over 28% on both as well, per Baseball Savant.
He'll be facing an Oakland lineup that has been below average against right-handed pitching, posting a .299 wOBA and 98 wRC+. They've also struggled versus curveballs, ranking 26th in Major League Baseball.
Frankie Montas has basically mirrored his numbers from 202 through his first eight starts of this season, but that's not a good thing. His xERA and xFIP are both over 4.35 and he's really struggling to keep the ball in the yard, allowing eight homers already to opposing hitters.
His main three pitches of fastball, sinker and slider are allowing a wOBA over .330, which will be a problem against Houston's lineup because they rank second against fastballs, first against sliders and have only one guy with a negative run value against sinkers.
I have the Astros projected as -137 favorites , so I think there's plenty of value on them at -108 and would play it up to -122 odds as my top selection.
