Saturday's MLB slate is a loaded one, as 17 games grace the board. With so many games in action, there are plenty of bets that hold value.
Our staff hand-picked four moneyline bets for today: Guardians vs. Tigers (4:10 p.m. ET), Phillies vs. Mets (7:15 p.m. ET), Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (7:15 p.m. ET) and Blue Jays vs. Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
Be sure to check out all four of our best bets below, and check back for more action tomorrow.
MLB Odds & Picks
Guardians vs. Tigers
Sean Zerillo: This matchup was postponed from Friday — disappointing because Detroit was my best bet, and we can’t take that CLV with us.
I bet the Tigers moneyline around +150, and it was set to close as low as +130. Moreover, I bet their spread (+1.5 runs) at -120, which was set to close anywhere from -130 to -145, depending on the book.
Faedo and Bieber faced off last Sunday, and the Tigers prevailed as +160 (38.5% implied) underdogs on the road.
Swapping home field, one would expect the line to adjust from +160 down to as low as +125 (44.5% implied) or +120 (45.5% implied) — an increase of 6-7%.
After accounting for lineup changes and bullpen rest, my projection for this pitching matchup adjusted from +150 in Cleveland to +122 in Detroit — a difference of 5%.
I project Faedo right around an average starter and prefer the more optimistic end of his preseason FIP projections (ranging from 4.57 to 4.99). The former first-round pick progressed quickly through the minors, especially after returning from Tommy John surgery this year.
Conversely, I’m particularly low on Bieber, whose velocity (90.7 MPH) is down more than two ticks relative to last season and 3.5 MPH compared to his Cy Young campaign (94.2 MPH). Moreover, his spin rate has tumbled in recent starts since MLB started cracking down on the sticky stuff while he was on the IL last season.
Bieber’s 12-game Cy Young campaign is a mere blip compared to the 58-start sample on either side of that pandemic-shortened year when he only faced Central division competition.
Outside of 2020 — when his expected ERA indicators sat in the low 2s — Bieber’s xFIP and SIERA have settled in the low 3s and have climbed to the mid-to-high 3s at reduced velocity this season.
I would bet the Tigers down to +132 at a 2% edge compared to my projection. Moreover, I would look to take some spread (+1.5) up to -146 in a game with a relatively low total.
Additionally, you can play an F5 over up to 3.5 (-125).
Phillies vs. Mets
Anthony Dabbundo: Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin deserves more praise for his start to the 2022 season. He’s always been someone I’ve seen as underrated in the market, and he looks undervalued again on Saturday against Taijuan Walker and the Mets.
Eflin has a 2.26 xERA, which is a career-low by more than a full run.
He has has increased his strikeout rate, maintained his elite command numbers, and he’s now avoiding more hard contact than he ever has. His swinging-strike rate is the highest of his career, and his hard-hit rate is 12% lower than last season.
Eflin doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he just struck out 12 in seven innings against the Dodgers. I’m looking to buy Eflin and sell Walker, who the Phillies hit hard when they last saw him earlier this month.
Walker has improved his ground ball rate, but the Phillies remain an elite offense when you look at barrels and hard-hit rate.
Philadelphia's bullpen is always scary, but their two best relievers — Corey Knebel and Seranthony Dominguez — are rested.
I'd play the Phillies at +100 or better.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
DJ James: It seems the market has not caught up to the fact that the Diamondbacks can hit right-handed pitching well. They rank fifth in baseball in the month of May with a wRC+ mark of 122, compared to their Saturday counterpart — the Dodgers — at first at 139.
The difference here is negligible looking at how steep the price is for the Dodgers.
For one, Tony Gonsolin is a great pitcher. He owns a 1.61 ERA and 2.52 xERA. His crux is that he will walk the opponent occasionally (walk rate of 10.5%). This month against righties, Arizona owns a 10.4% walk rate, so it's extremely patient from this side of the pitching rubber.
Even if Gonsolin has not allowed more than two earned runs on the season, the Diamondbacks aren't the best matchup for him.
On the other side, Merrill Kelly will throw for the Diamondbacks. Yes, the Dodgers are not a favorable matchup for him either, but this game line should be closer. Kelly owns a 3.49 ERA and 3.65 xERA, so he's relatively in line with expectations.
This is solid enough to bet the D-backs on the moneyline at +155. Play it to +140 because Kelly has proven in the past he can go deep into ballgames to hand to the back end of the Arizona bullpen. This should further negate any damage the Dodgers can do to the Arizona relief corps.
Blue Jays vs. Angels
Jules Posner: The Angels look to stop their recent three-game slide against the Blue Jays on Saturday night.
Michael Lorenzen takes the mound to play the stopper for the Angels, and he's been solid at home so far in 2022. He's posted a 2.38 ERA over 22 2/3 innings. However, his peripherals do give me slight hesitation. His 4.11 home FIP means he may be due for regression.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays offense ranks 18th in runs scored on the road over the past few weeks and is hitting just .210 against RHP on the road over that time span. Their road wRC+ against RHP is 103, but that is still middle of the pack.
The Angels offense has been a little sluggish at home against LHP in May, producing only a 94 wRC+, which puts them in the bottom third of the league.
Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has a 5.04 FIP on the road this season and a 9.75 career ERA at Angels Stadium. Despite his aesthetically pleasing ERA in the mid-3s, the Angels still seem to hold an edge Saturday night.
With the game being a coin flip with relatively even odds, back the Angels — a team that's 15-11 at home. The Jays, meanwhile, are 11-12 on the road, so take the Halos to the -125 range.
