Mondays might be a little rough, but they're always better with some baseball.
There are only six games on tonight's slate, but our MLB writers have found betting value on half of them: Diamondbacks vs. Reds, Red Sox vs. Angels and Mets vs. Padres.
Check out betting breakdowns for all three games below, and be sure to check back tomorrow with plenty more games on deck.
MLB Odds & Picks
Diamondbacks vs. Reds
Jules Posner: The Diamondbacks roll into Cincinnati on Monday to start a four-game series against the Reds.
Josh Rojas seems to be an ignitor for the Diamondbacks offense. He missed the start of the season with an oblique strain, but since his return, the Diamondbacks moved from one of the worst offenses in the league to league average.
Overall, Rojas has hit safely in four of his five last games. In the past three weeks against right-handers on the road, Rojas has a .363 BA with a .818 SLG and a .455 ISO.
He also has the added benefit of hitting in front of Ketel Marte, who is on a hot run of his own and should also be considered for over 1.5 total bases.
Rojas is also facing off against Hunter Greene, who has struggled at home this season. So far, Greene has a 6.59 ERA, a 7.10 FIP and a 5.35 x FIP over three home starts and 13 2/3 home innings.
It's important to mention that left-handed hitters have gone just 4-for-30 against Greene at home for a .167 BA — but this is a small sample and has the potential to move against the left-heavy D-backs lineup.
Additionally, the Reds' bullpen has struggled of late, so Rojas may end up getting four or five shots at 1.5 total bases today. His total base odds are in +140 and better territory. The value is worth the risk here.
Red Sox vs. Angels
Tanner McGrath: It’s tough we have to fade the Angels after they’ve lost 11 straight games, because they’re “due” right?
However, I can’t help but bet the Red Sox here.
I don’t like Noah Syndergaard’s game right now. He’s managing to suppress exit velocity to an extent, but he’s not missing bats (15.9 K%, 15th percentile), and the barrels are coming like crazy (8.3% barrel rate, 38th percentile).
Plus, he doesn’t have much backup. The Angels’ bullpen has a 6.04 ERA over the last two weeks, good for 24th in MLB. They even make Boston’s relievers look good.
Syndergaard and Company are about to get tee’d up by a Red Sox lineup that ranks first in wRC+, wOBA and OPS over the past month. Plus, the Sox are fourth in barrel rate on the season and should easily create solid contact against Thor.
Michael Wacha is due for plenty of negative regression, but after five straight years of posting an xERA above 4.50 (with four of those years being above 5.00), his current 3.83 xERA is a huge improvement.
Sharp money has been hitting the BoSox ML, pushing it down from a +120 opener. I think the Red Sox should be favored here — even if it’s on the road — and like them at anything better than +100.
I’d look toward the over 9 as well.
Mets vs. Padres
DJ James: The Mets have displayed their abilities to hit left-handers, especially in the past month. They own a collective 118 wRC+ mark and will be facing Blake Snell and the Padres on Monday night. Their team .332 OBP is impressive, as well.
Snell has had a couple of strong outings, but he's still allowing an average exit velocity of 88.5 MPH. His walk rate of 13.3% has been outlandish, too.
In the last month, Pete Alonso, Luis Guillorme and Eduardo Escobar all own a .400+ xwOBA, so expect some strong plate appearances against a volatile Snell in this outing.
On the other side of the diamond, Carlos Carrasco has been incredibly impressive for the Mets. His ERA sits at 3.63 with a 3.50 xERA, so he's about in line with his peripherals and expectations.
In addition, his walk rate is only 5.5%. Carrasco's average exit velocity against and hard-hit percentage both rank in the top 40% of MLB, and he owns an elite chase rate of 35.3%.
Lastly, the Mets and the Padres are both in the top-four of MLB in the last month in xFIP, so the bullpens don't factor into the handicap.
Since the Mets are sending a far better starter to the mound and have more success off of lefties than the Padres have against righties, take the Mets at -104. Play them to -125.
