With only eight games on Monday's MLB slate, there aren't as many options on the board as most days — but that doesn't mean there isn't value.
Our MLB analysts came through with two best bets for Monday's games, including a player prop in Angels vs. Rangers and a moneyline play in Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Check out both best bets for Monday's MLB slate below — and check back tomorrow for even more MLB betting coverage.
Monday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Monday night's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Angels vs. Rangers
Monday, June 11 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-164)  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Monday is Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson to go under 4.5 strikeouts against the Rangers.
Anderson owns a strikeout percentage of just 14% this season. The Rangers lineup also doesn’t strike out very much. Texas’ projected lineup has combined for just a 14% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers this season.
Anderson has gone under this number in four of his last five starts. He has a 5.62 ERA and 5.98 xFIP and hasn't been consistently effective so far this season.
He has faced the Rangers once already, but that was in Los Angeles. Texas is leading all of baseball in runs scored per game at home with 6.77 with the next closest team being Tampa Bay at 5.84.
I think Texas will give Anderson plenty of problems tonight and prevent him from going over this total.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-164) |
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Monday, June 11 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Phillies ML -103  |
The D-backs are absolutely red hot right now, so this is the perfect time to try and fade them.
Matt Strahm has been incredibly solid ever since he made the jump to the starting rotation. His numbers are basically the same between being a reliever and a starter this season, as he’s sitting with a 3.38 xERA and an 11.69 K/9 rate. That strikeout rate is significantly higher as a starter.
Strahm has an absolutely nasty slider that opposing hitters have just a .175 xBA against — and he's producing a 37.9% whiff rate.
The Diamondbacks are one of the best fastball-hitting teams in baseball, but they’re average-to-below average against every other pitch type, including sliders (-2.3 run value).
Tommy Henry has some interesting numbers. He’s a pitch-to-contact starter, as he has one of the lowest K/9 rates among qualified pitchers at 5.36. But his control hasn’t been great either with his BB/9 rate up at 3.77.
His Stuff+ comes in at just 82. For context, Madison Bumgarner’s Stuff+ this season was 83; that’s how hittable Henry’s arsenal has been.
He's in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, but his barrel rate allowed sits in the 41st percentile. At some point, he’s going to get hit hard.
In terms of xFIP, LOB%, K-BB ratio and Stuff+, there really isn’t that much of a difference between these two bullpens.
I have the Phillies projected at -132, so I like the value on them at -103.
Pick: Phillies ML (-103 | Play to -132) |
