Editor's Note: Friday's Mets-Phillies game and Blue Jays-Guardians game have been postponed because of inclement weather.
Friday night brings us plenty of intrigue on the MLB betting slate, and our analysts have found plenty of value.
We have wagers on four games, with a pair of similar picks on the pitching matchup of Kevin Gausman vs. Shane Bieber in Cleveland. We also have bets on Mets-Phillies, Tigers-Astros and Rockies-Diamondbacks.
Here are our five best bets from Friday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Editor's Note: Friday's Mets-Phillies game has been postponed because of inclement weather.
William Boor: The Mets' dramatic, come-from-behind win Thursday night illustrated the different directions these two teams are headed. The Phillies have lost five of their past six games, including four in a row. Meanwhile, the Mets lead the National League East and took two of three from the Phillies last weekend.
Riding the momentum of Thursday night's win, the Mets will turn to Max Scherzer to notch another victory. Yes, the Phillies got to Scherzer for four runs over six innings in his last start, but the right-hander is too good and too competitive to let that happen in back-to-back outings.
Scherzer has fared well against the Phillies in his career, pitching to a 2.60 ERA with 217 strikeouts over 169 2/3 innings. At Citizens Bank Park, he's been even better, going 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA over 13 starts.
Kyle Gibson will get the ball for the Phillies and he fared well against the Mets last week, yielding just one unearned run over 4 1/3 innings. Could Gibson spin another gem? Sure. However, a glance at his advanced metrics shows there may be some slight regression coming.
It's also important to note Gibson hasn't finished the sixth in three of his five starts, while Scherzer has done so in three of the four times he's taken the mound.
Neither bullpen has impressed this season and both rank in the bottom third of the league in ERA, so backing the starter more likely to go deep in the game could pay off in the later innings. I'd take the Mets to -180.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Editor's Note: Friday's Mets-Phillies game and Blue Jays-Guardians game have been postponed because of inclement weather.
DJ James: The Toronto Blue Jays and the Cleveland Guardians both rank in the top-12 in wRC+ against right-handers this season. Yes, both have slumped since April 15, comparatively, but this total is far too low, even with Kevin Gausman facing off with Shane Bieber.
For one, their peripherals tell a different story and their successes. Gausman may own a 2.27 ERA, but he is getting a tad luck with his xERA being 2.68. This is still an exceptional number, but keep in mind he is a strikeout pitcher. Cleveland ranks bottom-six in strikeouts. Since the Guardians will put the bat on the ball, they could make something happen. After all, they still have a 114 wRC+ in that timeframe.
Bieber has been a little iffy. For one, his xERA is 3.89 versus a 2.46 ERA. He is definitely getting lucky in the early going. He will not walk many, but he does allow an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph and hard hit rate of 41.8%. The Blue Jays average 90.8 mph and 45.4%, respectively. This tells me that they will hit Bieber hard and could shorten his outing.
The 6.5 (-110) number should be higher. Take over on this number to 7.5 (-110).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Editor's Note: Friday's Mets-Phillies game and Blue Jays-Guardians game have been postponed because of inclement weather.
Anthony Dabbundo: Two aces take the mound on Friday night in Cleveland as Kevin Gausman takes on Shane Bieber, but I'm betting on offense and going contrarian against two of the best starters in the American League. Bieber is a pitcher I've been skeptical of in the beginning of the season and although his results have been impressive, his underlying process and metrics are significantly less impressive.
Bieber's fastball velocity is down more than 1.5 mph from last season's peak and has not recovered as he's made more and more starts this season. His curveball spin rate is down, he's generating fewer swings and misses and his stuff+ rating, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic, is way down to 90.3, with 100 being average.
The Bieber fades haven't exactly come off to this point, but I'm expecting major regression for Bieber in the coming weeks. He's faced the Royals, Reds, Athletics and injury-plagued White Sox thus far this year and this is a big step up in the lineup.
As impressive as Gausman has been for Toronto this year, I also don't expect him to maintain a 0% HR rate and to not walk a batter all season. Cleveland doesn't strike out and has an excellent chase rate and that will make this a more difficult matchup for the Jays starter as well.
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Kenny Ducey: Beau Brieske has been good to me. Through two starts the previously unknown commodity owns a 3.60 ERA, holding down a pretty good Rockies offense and an elite Dodgers offense. While the Astros appear to be another daunting lineup to conquer for his third big-league start, they’ve been rather tame so far in 2022.
In case you haven’t heard, Houston sits in 15th with a 104 wRC+, and while it has some strong peripherals Brieske’s ability to command the strike zone and limit the hard-hit balls should serve him well here.
He allowed just 0.7 homers per nine in the minors and 1.1 per nine in college. That, in chorus with an average 36.7% hard-hit rate, would seem to indicate the three homers he’s allowed thus far are a little out of character. Sure, this is the big leagues, but he’s probably going to be victimized by an abundance of singles and walks when he does falter.
Anyway, I just needed to sell you on the Tigers’ end of this under. We already know Luis Garcia is a very good pitcher, entering this one with a 3.44 xERA and a low 5.9% walk rate. The Tigers are bottom 10 in strikeout rate and own an 87 wRC+. They will be be minced meat against Garcia, and together the two pitchers should bring us an under.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Collin Whitchurch: Merrill Kelly is the real deal, folks.
Kelly has been one of my favorite pitchers to wager on early this season, particularly because he plays for a Diamondbacks team that is an underdog a majority of the time.
The Snakes are not underdogs today, however, so we have to find a different approach. The Rockies don't have drastically different home/road splits offensively this season, believe it or not, but they've been rather pedestrian regardless.
They're slightly below-average against righties, and will be facing a great one today in Kelly, whose gone at least six innings in three straight starts and given up more than one run just once this season.
Chad Kuhl's start to the season is a little more smoke and mirrors, and I expect plenty of regression from him eventually. The most notable thing about his start is that he's reduced his walk rate substantially, and he should have little issue with an Arizona offense that is bottom-seven in the league in wRC+.
I don't trust either bullpen, so my focus is on the first five innings total at 4.5. Neither offense should have much luck early in this game.
