Editor's Note: The Cubs placed Drew Smyly on the bereavement list on Tuesday afternoon. Scott Effross will start against the White Sox.
Tonight's MLB slate is absolutely loaded, with 16 games including a doubleheader kicking off late this afternoon between the Braves and Mets.
There's a ton of intrigue across the board, including key divisional matchups between the Blue Jays and Yankees and Giants and Dodgers, plus the Crosstown Classic getting started at Wrigley between the White Sox and Cubs.
Our analysts have found value across the board, including on those three aforementioned games. And we have five picks total.
Here are our best bets from Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Michael Arinze: If there was ever a pitcher capable of putting an end to the Yankees' 10-game winning streak, Toronto's Alek Manoah has to be atop that list. Like the Yankees, Manoah is working on a streak of his own as he's won each of his last eight decisions.
The Blue Jays right-hander has three career starts against the Yankees, and in 17 2/3 innings, he's allowed three runs while pitching a shutout in two of the outings. New York's current lineup has 49 at-bats against Manoah with a .180/.239/.180 split.
Manoah's benefited from an increase in his first-pitch strikes. This year, he's getting ahead of hitters 64.9% of the time compared to 57.3% in 2021. That's quite an improvement from a pitcher who still went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in his debut season. Hitters are also struggling to make solid contact against him as his barrel rate is down to 3.1% from 5.8%.
It's not often that you see a second-year pitcher as polished as Manoah. At just 24 years of age, he already has command of four different pitches: a four-seamer (42.5%), slider (29.7%), sinker (17.8%) and changeup (10%). The fact that he's in double-digits with his pitch usage is something that shouldn't go unnoticed.
The Blue Jays should have the edge in this matchup with Manoah going up against Jameson Taillon for the Yankees. While Taillon's certainly been decent for the Yankees, I think he'll face the more formidable challenge of trying to match zeroes on the board with Manoah. Toronto's splits are better against Taillon, evidenced by a .235/.277/.399 line in 51 at-bats.
I know it's easy to get caught up in the Yankees' 10-game winning streak, but the Blue Jays have yet to taste defeat in 12 straight starts by Manoah. I think that number gets to 13, so I'll back Toronto as a -125 home favorite over at DraftKings. I would play this number up to -130.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
DJ James: Noah Syndergaard skipped a start on Friday, due to being sick, and will now throw against Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox. Wacha has been overachieving the say the least. His average exit velocity is 91.2 mph and his chase rate ranks in the ninth percentile of the MLB.
Syndergaard, in contrast, ranks in the 61st percentile and averages an exit velocity of 85.6 mph. This is the lowest mark in his career.
Both pitchers have gone at least five innings in each start this season, but this looks to be a strong bounce-back spot for the Angels, after only getting two hits in Monday’s affair against Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox. The Angels have six hitters over the .400 xwOBA mark against righties.
On the other hand, Boston is one of the worst teams when facing right-handers this season. The Red Sox rank 27th in wRC+ at 79. They have also been hitting the ball weakly. They rank 20th in hard hit percentage at 27.9%. The Angels rank slightly higher at 30.5%, but this little bit will matter, when considering the tiers of starting pitchers each is facing.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Jules Posner: Yes. I know the Cincinnati Reds are 3-19. I know they're 2-12 on the road. I know they're 1-9 in their last 10 games.
If there is any chance they get back in the win column, it's with Tyler Mahle on the road. He did get roughed up in his last road start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he should bounce back against a familiar opponent in the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mahle posted a 2.30 ERA with a 2.76 FIP on the road last season in over 100 innings. He also has a career 2.78 ERA at American Family Field.
On the other side, Brandon Woodruff has been equally dominant at home this season. He hasn't given up an earned run at home so far this year and 1.90 home FIP means the scoring opportunities have been few and far between over his 11 home innings this season.
Digging deeper, he has been lucky enough to face the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals in both of his home starts. Two teams that rank in the bottom third in team wRC+ against RHP on the road.
Milwaukee has a team wRC+ of 101 against RHP at home so far this season, while the Reds … OK, they're offense is bad.
There also isn't really any point in comparing the bullpens today either.
However, Woodruff is due for slight regression at home and Mahle is due for a positive regression on the road. This could provide enough of an edge to make the value of the Reds ML at +200 worth a shot. They gotta win sometime, right?
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Editor's Note: The Cubs placed Drew Smyly on the bereavement list on Tuesday afternoon. Scott Effross will start against the White Sox.
Collin Whitchurch: The White Sox offense has been screaming "positive regression" for most of this season and Tuesday night is the perfect opportunity for it to happen.
Yes, the winds are going to be blowing in heavily at Wrigley Field on what is expected to be a cold, damp night. And yes, Drew Smyly has done a fine job in the run prevention department in his first four starts with the Cubs.
But this is a terrible matchup for Smyly. The White Sox, for all their early season woes, are still formidable against lefties. On Sunday they faced a lefty in Patrick Sandoval who hadn't allowed an earned run all season and got on the board immediately while making hard contact all afternoon.
Smyly is no Sandoval. He lives in the zone with low-90s fastballs and a curveball he absolutely needs hitters to chase to find success. In addition to their lefty mashing, the White Sox hit curveballs better than any team in baseball a year ago save the Blue Jays.
I like the full game total here as oddsmakers have overcorrected down to 6.5 given the wind factor, but in case Michael Kopech shuts down the Cubs offense completely, I'll focus instead on the White Sox team total, which at over 3.5 provides great value.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Charlie DiSturco: The most-anticipated game of Tuesday night’s slate is the NL West bout between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s the first game since the Dodgers knocked out the Giants from the playoffs, and it’s a battle between southpaws Carlos Rodon and Julio Urias.
Rodon has quickly supplanted himself among the best pitchers in baseball. In four starts since signing with the Giants, Rodon has thrown 23 innings of three-run ball, giving up just 11 hits while striking out 38.
His opponents have just a .158 xBA against the 29-year-old and he ranks inside the top six percent among all pitchers in xERA (1.76), xSLG (.255) and xwOBA (.228). Tack on the fact his FIP of 0.96 is actually lower than his ERA, and there are no signs of negative regression for the left-hander.
The same can’t be said about Urias, who, despite a 2.50 xERA and .188 xBA, has struggled with both his control and velocity. He’s walking more batters than normal, opponents aren’t chasing the lefty and his fastball velocity is down nearly two miles per hour.
Urias’ xFIP also sits two runs higher than his ERA, proving that he’s actually been quite fortunate on the balls that are put into play.
To me, this is the perfect spot to back the Giants on the road. The advantage here is within the starting pitching matchup. Both offenses struggle against left-handed pitching and both bullpens rank inside the top five in ERA. So at plus money, it’s worth backing the underdog sending the better southpaw to the mound in this divisional bout.
Back Rodon and the Giants to cap off Tuesday’s MLB slate down to +115.
