With all 30 Major League Baseball teams in action and 16 total games on Sunday, our Action Network MLB staff has four best bets on tap. They have three plays on underdogs on the moneyline and one total. Check out their picks and analysis below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Jules Posner: Although the last two games have been relatively high scoring, it's really hard to get a read on this series. The Diamondbacks got to a solid Cubs bullpen Saturday, they roughed up Kyle Hendricks on Friday, and they struggled to get anything going against Marcus Stroman on Thursday.
Using Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman as the litmus test and the Diamondbacks' overall offensive output on the road this month, it would seem they are in a good position to complete this four-game sweep Sunday.
Additionally, they're listed as the underdogs again, and a team at plus-money with a three-game win streak seems like a great value. Look for Merrill Kelly to get back on track Sunday and take the Diamondbacks moneyline to the -110 threshold.
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Nicholas Martin: It seems quite realistic to think the Rockies can get to Taijuan Walker for a big total in a tough spot at Coors Field. Austin Gomber is by no means a world beater, but I actually think New York isn’t holding a pitching edge in this matchup and that this game projects closer to pick ’em.
Walker's fastball velocity and spin rates have dropped and his strikeout rate has fallen to just 12.8 percent.
Walker has been hard-hit 40% of the time, which is a concerning number entering this matchup with the Rockies at Coors Field. It seems likely this is a high-water mark in overall results, so I believe we will see him trend downward from here on out.
Over his last three outings, Walker's OPS allowed sits at 1.220 facing the order for the third time, which could be somewhat more of a concerning number with these teams coming off a doubleheader.
We should see another higher scoring game, but the most value is on the Rockies moneyline at +100 or better.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Michael Arinze: In 11 seasons, Alex Wood has compiled a 66-50 record with a 3.51 ERA. Despite those encouraging numbers, I'm not sure he's ever been regarded as an ace throughout his career. Perhaps even Woods doesn't see himself as an ace. He certainly hasn't performed like one when his teams desperately need a win. With the Giants facing a possible sweep and four-game losing streak, I took a look at how Woods has performed in this spot.
Historically, when his team is a favorite and on a losing streak of three or more games, they're just 4-10 for -7.18 units. The Giants are also 82-90 for a loss of 7.95 units when facing a four-game losing streak.
My model has this game much closer to a pick'em, so I'll risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the underdog Padres at +125 on the moneyline.
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Tanner McGrath: The Yankees are an incredibly public team. At the time of this writing, more than 90% of the tickets are on New York for both games.
Yet, that’s probably fair. Even ignoring this season's results, the Yankees have won four of the last five meetings with the White Sox.
That said, I'm not all that interested in either side in this matchup. I would lean toward Chicago due to the plus-money odds, but it's just not tantalizing enough.
However, I would definitely look to back the total staying under nine runs. Both starting pitchers have some advantages against their foes, and I'm always looking toward an under with a total this high in a run-impoverished environment.
It's also nice that they both feature immensely talented bullpens. The White Sox have underperformed so far, but the Yankees are top-five in reliever FIP (2.98) and xFIP (3.42) this season. So, it’ll be hard to tack on late runs tonight.
If you can get under 9 at -120 or better, I'd look that way.
