Most of the sporting world will have its eyes trained on Queens, New York this evening as Serena Williams attempts to keep her tennis career going at the US Open.
Meanwhile, just across the street, two of the top teams in baseball will go head-to-head at Citi Field when the Los Angeles Dodgers face the New York Mets. That's just one of the three matchups catching the attention of our MLB betting experts on tonight's 15-game slate.
Our crew details how they are betting three matchups and where they see value in those game. Check out their best bets for Wednesday night below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Nicholas Martin: Milwaukee will head look to keep its slim Wild Card hopes alive Wednesday as it enters into a very favorable matchup with the Pirates, against one of the league's worst starting pitchers, Zach Thompson.
Thompson has pitched to an xERA of 5.16 this season, and an actual ERA of 5.33 throughout 104.2 innings. He has struggled mightily throughout the month of August in particular, with batters slugging at a ridiculous .530 clip, and historically Thompson has struggled in previous matchups against the current Brewers roster, allowing an xSLG of .494 throughout 82 PA's.
Christian Yelich has been in strong form of late with 13 hits in his last 35 PA's, and has fared steadily historically against Thompson with three hits in eight at-bats. Thompson has allowed left-handed bats to slug .467 on the season, while Yelich has slugged .413 against righties throughout his very modest 2022 campaign.
The Brewers should manage a steady output of offense in this spot, and Yelich seems to have a number of splits working in his favor here as he sets his sights on one of the more gettable starters in the majors.
At +120 for Yelich to record over 1.5 bases I believe we have a strong play, on a day where an extra at-bat for the Brewers likely lead-off man seems very possible.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Jules Posner: Triston McKenzie has put together an impressive 2022. He's been particularly solid at home this season. He's posted a 2.78 ERA and a 2.63 FIP at home in 2022 and he's backed by a bullpen that's been virtually un-hittable over the past two weeks.
Jordan Lyles has been fun to back at home this season, but on the road he's a different dude. His ERA and FIP are both solidly over 5 and the Guardians are a gritty lineup that really wears starters down.
Additionally, the Baltimore Orioles' offense has taken a significant dip in production on the road against RHP over the past two weeks. They are 28th in wRC+ in that situation and that's a tough place to be against a Guardians' pitching staff that is in top form.
The Guardians' moneyline opened at -170, so that's beyond the threshold of risk/reward I'm comfortable with. Their runline opened at +125 for -1.5 and a couple books had them at +130.
It has since moved down on those books to +120. This is a great value considering both teams' recent performance. Play it as long as it's in plus money.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
DJ James: Jacob deGrom and Tyler Anderson is by far the best pitching matchup in Wednesday’s slate. deGrom has been great since returning with a 2.15 ERA and even stronger xERA at 1.72. He has underachieved, if anything.
However, Tyler Anderson is a solid match with a 2.69 ERA and 3.14 xERA. Anderson also thrives in preventing hard contact. He ranks in the 96th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 95th percentile Hard Hit Rate.
The kicker here is Los Angeles crushes right-handers. Yes, they will face off with the league’s best in deGrom, but they own a 144 wRC+ off of righties in August, behind only the Saint Louis Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled intensely with left-handers, and Anderson is amongst the tops of the MLB in that regard. New York already ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in Hard Hit Percentage, so Anderson is a horrid opponent for the slumping Mets.
Now, Los Angeles will not necessarily crush deGrom. No team does, but they will be able to work counts to get to the Mets’ bullpen. In doing so, the Dodgers have a steep advantage. Take them at +136, and play to -110.
Both teams should have more of a similar moneyline.
