It's getaway day in Major League Baseball and we have nine games on tap, with three getting going this afternoon and another six under the lights.
Our analysts have found angles on two of those games, with a first five innings bet on Guardians vs. Mariners and two disagreeing takes on this evening's game between the White Sox and Orioles.
Here are our three best bets from Thursday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Guardians vs. Mariners
Brad Cunningham: Triston McKenzie is coming off an incredible 14-strikeout performance against the White Sox in his last outing. For the season, he's been the Guardians best starting pitcher outside of Shane Bieber. He has an xERA of 3.81, an xFIP of 3.85, and has a very low 6.4% walk rate.
He has a three-pitch arsenal of fastball, slider and curveball and he'll need to utilize his slider and curveball quite a bit because the only pitch the Mariners have a positive run value against are fastballs. His curveball has been pretty nasty this season. It's only allowing a .185 xwOBA and is producing a 45.9% whiff rate.
Triston McKenzie, Vicious Curveballs. 😤
10Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/p0doVd2XUS
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 20, 2022
Marco Gonzales, on the other hand, is once again overperforming his expected metrics. His ERA is at 4.08, but his xERA is at 4.65 and his xFIP is 4.92. He's also allowing a .274 xBA, .340 xwOBA, and .446 xSLG, all of which are in the bottom 15% among MLB starting pitchers.
The Guardians don't hit left-handed pitching very well, but even they should be able to get to Gonzales, who has allowed 27 earned runs in his last seven starts.
I have McKenzie and the Guardians projected at -139 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -115 and would play it up to -120.
White Sox vs. Orioles
DJ James: After a tough go of it in July, Lance Lynn looks like the old Lance Lynn again. He has a 3.04 ERA in August with at least five strikeouts and 5 2/3 innings in each of his last four outings.
On the flip side, Jordan Lyles has a 4.87 ERA in August, so he has slipped up a bit. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in every peripheral metric except walk rate and extension.
In August, the White Sox hold a team wRC+ of 106 off of right-handed pitching. The O’s have a 117 wRC+. Baltimore normally would get the nod, but the difference in starting pitching is wide in this game.
Take the White Sox to -140 with Lynn on the hill.
White Sox vs. Orioles
Jules Posner: Lance Lynn is coming off his best road start of the season against the Cleveland Guardians, but he has still struggled to put it together in 2022. His inconsistency makes him particularly vulnerable, especially against an opponent like the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles have the second-best wRC+ at home against RHP over the past two weeks, and they are 36-24 at home this season. They seem to have made the adjustment to their park's new dimensions and have created a lot of traffic on the bases, while capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Jordan Lyles has really enjoyed pitching at Camden Yards as well this season. His 3.13 home ERA and his 3.37 FIP are solid home numbers. Although his 4.87 home xFIP scares me, lots of things scare me.
The White Sox are also not as potent of an offense without Tim Anderson at the top of the order. They have stayed afloat in the AL Central, but the Orioles have been playing inspired baseball this season, while the White Sox have been incredibly disappointing.
Play the Orioles moneyline at -120 or better.
