After a 10-game schedule on Monday, we have a full 15-game slate ready to go for Tuesday.
Charlie DiSturco has three bets lined up for Monday, including picks for Guardians vs. Pirates, Padres vs. Blue Jays and Rays vs. Rangers.
Check out all three of DiSturco's picks for Monday's MLB slate below.
Guardians vs. Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET · Logan Allen vs. Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller has become an Action Network darling, and for good reason. He's posting a career year with a 3.38 xERA and continues to be undervalued in the betting market.
Keller has seen his strikeout rate increase while shoring up on command. He’s induced soft contact and has really taken that step forward toward being an ace in the Pirates' rotation. Just about every expected metric has the right-hander in line with his season to date, too.
Off the nice break, Keller also returns to PNC Park, where he has been dominant. His ERA at home sits at 2.63, while that number jumps over a run higher on the road. His biggest issue all season long has been a high barrel rate, but he draws a plus matchup against a Guardians lineup that remains contact-heavy.
He lines up against Logan Allen, who's making his return from the minor leagues in place of the injured Shane Bieber. Allen grades out around a league-average pitcher with a mid-4 xERA and .258 xBA.
After a strong start to his rookie season, Allen’s success slowly dissipated. Opponents began to figure him out, and we saw his hard-hit rate rise, while whiffs became much more limited. The end result was a dip in command, as Allen walked 13 batters in 22.2 innings in June prior to the demotion.
While it’s hard to project the Pirates' lineup, especially with so many young prospects littered throughout, Keller should be a much heavier favorite against Allen.
I’m backing Pittsburgh over the first five innings and full-game moneyline.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML & Full-Game ML |
Padres vs. Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET · Joe Musgrove vs. Alek Manoah
The Padres have been the biggest head-scratcher of the season, and blowing three leads in four games to Philadelphia doesn’t help. But on Tuesday night in a matchup between Joe Musgrove and Alek Manoah, the price is too shallow not to jump aboard.
Manoah returned from his FCL stint and threw six innings of one-run ball against the Tigers prior to the All-Star break. He struck out eight, but again, it was against the lowly Detroit offense. His Stuff+ on his slider — which was his best pitch last year — remained well below average despite the success, which leads me to believe SD is undervalued here.
San Diego is very patient at the plate, forcing opposing pitchers to work hard and attack the zone. That’s an area where Manoah has struggled this season with his strikeout rate dropping nearly 5% while his walks doubled (13.8%).
As the command starts to go, he becomes way more prone to being hit hard, and that’s exactly what has happened. His xBA (.276) and xSLG (.475) both rank in the bottom 15% of all pitchers, and he carries a 6.26 xERA into this matchup.
Musgrove, meanwhile, has been ace-like over the past month. After starting the season slow off an injury, the right-hander’s strikeout rate is back and his pinpoint command has been on display.
His xERA sits at an impressive 3.07, and he’s posted near-identical numbers to last season. The difference? He’s actually improved in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate, all while ranking in the 99th percentile in chase rate.
Manoah will have to string together a few more impressive starts before I change my opinion on the right-hander. He’ll be put to the test against a Padres lineup that should inevitably break through their historically-bad performance with runners in scoring position.
Back the Padres in both the first five and full game.
Pick: Padres F5 ML & Full-Game ML |
Rays vs. Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET · Taj Bradley vs. Nate Eovaldi
This is my favorite underdog of the day, and it’s a zig-zag of last night’s game that Texas won on a walk-off wild pitch.
Nate Eovaldi gets the call for the Rangers, and while his numbers look impressive from an outsider’s perspective, projections grade him out nearly a run higher across the board (3.41 xERA, 3.65 xFIP).
But what’s been most concerning has been Eovaldi’s dip in Stuff+. He ranks outside the top 80 and his fastball — thrown 37.7% of the time — has become a below-average pitch. Over the last month, we’ve seen Eovaldi’s strikeout rate begin to dip while his walks and hard-hit rate continue to rise.
Aside from his outing against Houston, Eovaldi has thrown 17 innings of 10-run ball with 12 strikeouts over the last month. He continues to rank in the bottom third of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and grades out about league average in whiffs.
The opposite can be said about Taj Bradley, who, despite a 5.43 ERA, has completely underperformed to date. His xERA sits nearly a run and a half lower (3.41), while his xFIP is down at 3.65.
The biggest issue for the fireball-throwing rookie has been a 65.2 LOB% and .348 BABIP. He's about league average in xSLG and barrel rate, yet seems to struggle with limiting runners on base and with the long ball (1.61 HR/9), both of which should positively regress in the coming months.
Bradley has everything you want in a starting pitcher. His strikeout rate nears 30%, and he has excellent command. Obviously with being a hard-throwing righty, his average exit velocity will be a concern at times. But behind a great defense, his numbers have outperformed expectations — for the worse.
With extended rest under his belt, I'm looking to back Bradley here as a short underdog. I think this game is closer to a coin flip given Eovaldi’s drastic change in Stuff+ over the last month or so and think Tampa is more than live.
Both offenses grade out about the same and Texas has a slight bullpen advantage, but not enough to make them this heavy of a favorite, even at home. Rays ML.
Pick: Rays ML |
