Today's MLB slate features 12 game in total, but our best bets are centered around two teams riding respective win streaks against two teams looking to snap their current losing streaks.
Our analysts have zeroed in on bets for Giant vs. Mets and Yankees vs. A's. Here are our staff’s best bets from Wednesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Anthony Dabbundo: Mets righty starter Carlos Carrasco has allowed five home runs in five starts, 16 runs in 16 innings and has failed to pitch more than five innings in any start since returning from injury.
His 8.82 ERA speaks for itself, but Carrasco has too much history of success and decent underlying numbers for me to assume he's declining this rapidly. His velocity on his fastball is very similar to where it was in 2019 and 2020, and his strikeout and walk rate are similar to those past seasons when he was a solid but not spectacular starter. It's a great buy low spot on Carrasco.
Carrasco's numbers will stabilize eventually, and despite the power in the Giants lineup, the Giants HR/FB rate suggests they are due for some regression.
On the other side, Giants lefty Alex Wood has been consistently good in a 2021 renaissance year following two previous bad seasons. his 4.11 ERA, 3.92 xERA and 3.63 FIP suggest he might be slightly better than even his solid ERA suggests.
The Mets are 25th in wRC+ vs. LHP, 28th in ISO against southpaws and haven't been putting nearly enough balls in play to produce runs without the long ball. This game probably won't feature a lot of offense early.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Kenny Ducey: In a vacuum, this is a great spot to bet on the Yankees. It’s hard to do it when they’re on an 11-game winning streak, with a loss feeling imminent, but a good rule to follow in betting is to ride the wave instead of guessing when it will end.
With recent results out the window, the Yankees are undoubtedly the stronger offense, They’ve posted a 123 wRC+ over the last two weeks to rank fifth in baseball, bringing up their ISO to .228 over that span. The walks are still coming at a ridiculous pace, and the strikeouts have come in bunches too, but the home runs and extra base hits that were so obviously missing have finally come to fruition.
New York will face an old farmhand and a personal favorite of mine in James Kaprielian, who has been effective this season in the face of underwhelming barrel and hard-hit rates. With hard contact his nemesis, it’s going to be a tricky proposition to face a Yankees team with a beefy 11.2% barrel rate over the last 14 days, a number which leads the major leagues by a considerable margin.
With all of that said, this matchup for the Oakland offense isn’t even a good one, either. The A’s have sputtered at the plate in August and Jameson Taillon has dominated, to the tune of a 3.18 ERA. He’s been one of the very best pitchers in baseball in the second half, and matches up quite nicely against a team which has struggled to drive the ball lately.
