Dodgers vs. Braves Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -177 |
| Braves Odds | +148 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 7:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
There's just one MLB playoff game today, but it's a big one.
The Braves secured a 1-0 lead in the NLCS on Saturday with a 3-2, walk-off victory against the Dodgers, courtesy of a ninth-inning single by Austin Riley.
Atlanta will look to take take of business at home again on Sunday night but the challenge will be more daunting as NL Cy Young contender Max Scherzer will take the ball for Los Angeles, opposed by youngster Ian Anderson.
We have two picks on tonight's game, including a play on the home underdogs and one on the total.
Here are our two best bets from Sunday's NLCS Game 2.
MLB Odds & Picks
Under 7.5
PRO Report: With Max Scherzer on the mound, the Dodgers are significant road favorites against the Braves, so the market expects Los Angeles to even the series at one game apiece.
However, our MLB betting model expects more runs tonight than the current Dodgers vs. Braves over/under.
We project this number at 8.15, translating to a 4.4% edge when compared to the widely-available 7.5.
Just because the Dodgers vs. Braves total is basically 7.5 everywhere doesn’t mean you should just find any sportsbook and lock in the over no matter the vig.
Be sure to visit our MLB Live Odds page to pinpoint the most advantageous juice for the over, like the +100 currently available at BetMGM and DraftKings.
PRO Projections Pick: Over 7.5
Braves +152 Or Better
Sean Zerillo: The Braves have a ton of familiarity with Max Scherzer since he faced them often as a member of the Washington Nationals. However, their current hitters have just a .576 OPS in 189 at-bats against the future Hall of Famer (15 BB, 70 K, 10 2B, 8 HR).
It’s essential to have good lefty bats to make Scherzer uncomfortable, but Joc Pederson and the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies are a combined 6-for-41 against Scherzer with 17 strikeouts. Freddie Freeman (11-for-47, with seven extra-base hits vs. Scherzer) and Eddie Rosario might have to drive the Braves offense early.
Atlanta appears to have focused on secondary pitches after retooling its lineup at the trade deadline. On a per-pitch basis, the Braves rank 21st against fastballs, but finished sixth against sliders and led the league against changeups and curveballs.
We’ll see how often Scherzer dials his fastball up in Game 2 after reducing his heater usage in a Dodgers uniform.
And we’ll see whether the 23-year-old Ian Anderson can continue his playoff dominance (two runs allowed in 23 2/3 innings) against one of the best pitchers of his era.
The former No. 3 overall pick seemingly overachieved this season (3.58 ERA), thanks to a high strand rate (79.1%) and low BABIP (.261) compared to the league average (72.1% and .290, respectively). Still, Anderson is immensely talented and has solid command over a three-pitch mix (fastball, changeup and curveball).
Anderson throws the changeup against lefties (36.6%) and righties (26.6%), and even when batters do make contact, they tend to drive it into the ground (57.7% groundball rate).
Still, the weapon is less effective against same-side hitters. Anderson owns reverse splits since his curveball is more of an average to below-average pitch (career .262 wOBA vs. lefties; .298 wOBA vs. righties), and he doesn’t have a plan C.
On a per pitch basis, the Dodgers ranked second against fastballs and eighth against changeups this season. Since the trade deadline, they ranked first and fifth against those pitch types. All season long, they struggled against curveballs, and perhaps we see Anderson incorporate more breakers into his pitch mix in this spot.
Scherzer’s fastballs and Anderson’s curveballs might be the critical pitch types for the two starters against these opposing offenses.
As for the betting odds, I would play the Braves at +152 (39.7% implied) or better on the moneyline and at +172 or better for the first five innings (F5).
