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Regardless of whether a game has postseason implications, there's betting value to be had.
Two of our three best bets for Saturday night's MLB slate aren't going to be matchups that blow you away, but that's never stopped us before, right? The Twins and Royals face off in Kansas City, before the Rockies take on the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Then, to close our slate of picks, the Brewers and Dodgers face off for Game 2 of their potential NLCS preview series.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 9:10 p.m. ET | |
Twins vs. Royals
Collin Whitchurch: Griffin Jax has been one of my favorite pitchers to fade since he joined the Twins' rotation. He's an aptly-named pitcher because he simply cannot stop allowing home runs.
The 26-year-old has given up 23 blasts in just 77 innings this year, and in 17 appearances, has just two in which he DIDN'T allow a home run. The last time Jax took the mound and didn't allow at least one to soar over the fence was way back on July 30, and since that date, he has allowed multiple home runs in five of 10 starts.
Neither of these teams have anything to play for, of course, but Kansas City's Kris Bubic is trying to put a bow on a topsy-turvy rookie campaign and build some confidence going into a 2022 season where the Royals might have more serious expectations.
Bubic has gotten roughed up at times, and is particularly prone to the walk, but has missed bats on a more consistent basis down the stretch, with five outings of six strikeouts or more in his last 10 starts.
There's a little bit of value on the over here at 9.5 at -105, but I like Kansas City's moneyline better even if you have to pay a little bit of juice. Bet the Royals to get the home win at -120, but not beyond that.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Matt Trebby: On paper, Antonio Senzatela vs. Zac Gallen isn’t the sexiest pitching matchup, but it gives value to the under on Saturday night in the desert.
The Rockies pitching staff as a whole has done well at Coors Field this season, but Senzatela has been good everywhere. His 4.27 ERA is backed by a 3.82 FIP and 4.08 xFIP.
Senzatela has also thrived since the start of July. In those 12 starts, he has a 3.38 ERA and 2.96 FIP.
Gallen, meanwhile, enjoys pitching in Phoenix. He had a 3.16 ERA and 3.38 xFIP last season at home. This year, his ERA is 4.18 but a 3.45 xFIP indicates he’s been slightly unlucky.
Combine the two solid arms and lineups that are firmly out of contention, and I’ll back the right-handers to continue thriving.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
| 9:10 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: This is a bet on the Brewers but it's also kind of a bet on the Giants.
San Francisco plays at 4:05 p.m. ET. If the Giants beat the Padres (as they should) they will clinch the NL West title and lock the Dodgers into the NL Wild Card Game.
Should that happen, it's very likely Los Angeles rests key starters and doesn't extend Julio Urías beyond a few innings.
It's risky, of course, to wager on an outcome of one game based almost exclusively on hoping for a result in another, but luckily the Brewers already have solid value even if the Giants should lose. Corbin Burnes is on the mound in what will be his final start of the season and final postseason tune-up.
The current NL Cy Young favorite hasn't slowed down despite the Brewers having little to play for the last few weeks of the season. He's faced some subpar offenses along the way, but is too talented of a pitcher to be getting this much positive juice even if the Dodgers' lineup is at full strength.
We're betting it won't be at full strength, however. Grab the +120 before the Giants-Padres game ends and bet it to +115. And if you're feeling extra frisky, parlay the Giants and Brewers together, which you can get at +257.
