There's baseball all throughout the day on Wednesday, with games beginning as early as 12:30 p.m. ET and running through the West Coast slate, including the series finale between the Dodgers and Padres.
Another close-to-full slate means plenty of opportunities to find betting value, and our staff of analysts have done just that. Here are their three best bets from Wednesday's MLB slate, including Rockies-Mariners, Blue Jays-Marlins and Dodgers-Padres.
MLB Odds & Picks
Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners
Sean Zerillo: Baseball fans have longed to see Rockies ace Germán Márquez pitch his home games outside of Coors Field for some time now. The 26-year-old righty owns some drastic home/road platoon splits throughout his career (.330 wOBA against at home, .299 on the road), but that narrative has flipped this season (.276 wOBA at home, .364 on the road).
I don't think the 2021 sample is anything beyond random variance. Márquez owns better command (+2.7% in K-BB%) on the road this season, but his BABIP (.355) is 75 points higher in away games, too, so batters are hitting .298 against him in road games, compared to .216 at home.
Márquez's strikeout minus walk rate has declined for four consecutive seasons (21.2% in 2018, to 19.4%, 14%, and 12.1%), but both his xERA (3.85) and xFIP (3.83) still place him as a top 40 starting pitcher in baseball.
Conversely, Justus Sheffield (6.03 xERA, 4.81 xFIP, 4.91 SIERA, 7.8% K-BB%) is on the worst run of his 29-start MLB career. All three of his offerings (sinker, slider, changeup) have returned negative pitch values this season, and he ranks 134th out of 146 qualified pitchers (min. 40 IP) in strikeout minus walk rate (my nemesis, John Gant, ranks last at 0.7%).
The Rockies are an MLB-worst 5-28 (.152) on the road this season, but I'm backing Márquez today with confidence. I projected Colorado's F5 moneyline at 61% and their whole game moneyline at 54.7%. So I would bet those plays to -145 and -110, respectively.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins
Kenny Ducey: Sometimes, you just have to eat your words. I’ve long said Robbie Ray is bad, particularly over the past year, but here I am recommending a bet on him.
The thing about Ray is, while he does give up hard-hit balls at the second-highest rate in baseball, that hasn’t really hurt him. His swing-and-miss stuff has been sublime; he’s nearly inside the top 10 in whiff rate among qualified pitchers, and his strikeout rate is all the way at 31.5%. It’s true that the Marlins have two big exit velocity machines in their lineup in Adam Duvall and Jesús Aguilar, but there’s really nothing that scares you aside from those two as it pertains to this matchup.
Miami is 25th against lefties with an 86 wRC+, and owns the second-worst strikeout rate against southpaws at 28.3%. So while Ray’s had issues on contact, it doesn’t really appear likely there will be a lot of it coming off the Marlins’ bats.
As for Trevor Rogers: Well, he’s good — but so is this Blue Jays' offense. It’s heating up, and it’s eighth against lefties this season with a low 22.3% strikeout rate. Rogers has the complete opposite matchup as Ray, and we can fade him at great odds. It’s not a glaring edge, but it’s an edge.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Brad Cunningham: Trevor Bauer has been pretty good this season, but he’s not where he was last season in Cincinnati. He has a 3.73 xFIP, his walk and home run per nine rates are up, and his strikeout rate is down. The two pitches he’s struggling with the most are his cutter and curveball, as both are allowing a wOBA over .325. The Padres have been pretty average against right-handed pitching, as they have a .312 wOBA, but they are the fourth best team in baseball against curveballs.
I think you could make the argument Joe Musgrove has actually been the best starter for the Padres as he’s got a 2.28 ERA and an xFIP of 3. He’s got a K/9 rate over 11 and a BB/9 rate under 2, which is incredible. He’s mainly an off-speed guy as his two main pitches are slider and curveball, which he goes to almost 50% of the time, and both of those are allowing a wOBA .185. The Dodgers are mainly a fastball/changeup hitting team and only have a positive 3.8 run value against curveballs and sliders, so Musgrove will have a pretty good matchup.
San Diego also has a pretty good advantage in the bullpens as well because they have a better ERA, xFIP, K/9, and BB/9 rate than the Dodgers.
I have San Diego projected at -142, so I love them at a short price at home of -110 and would play anything up to -125.
