It's a busy Wednesday in Major League Baseball with 15 games, including a doubleheader between Detroit and Cleveland. The main event features Shohei Ohtani taking the mound — and stepping to the plate — at Yankee Stadium against the Bronx Bombers.
Our analysts are looking elsewhere for value, however, with a pair of betting picks on the evening slate. Here are our best bets for Wednesday, including plays on Royals-Red Sox and Mets-Braves.
MLB Odds & Picks
Royals vs. Red Sox
Sean Zerillo: Mike Minor has had a strange major-league career.
After missing the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury, Minor returned as a (very effective) reliever for the Royals (2.21 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA) in 2017 and eventually thrived as a starter in Texas for two seasons (4.18 ERA in 2018, 3.59 ERA in 2019) despite some subpar indicators (4.53 xFIP in 2018, 4.60 in 2019).
While he overachieved during his first two seasons in Texas, Minor has underachieved (5.56 ERA in 2020, 5.12 in 2021) the past two seasons. His indicators as a starter this year have improved to their best marks in the second half of his career (4.10 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA).
The southpaw has reduced his fastball usage by 10%, year over year, and increased his combined breaking ball usage by a similar amount (from 27.2% to 38.5%). Minor is throwing his curveball and slider nearly as often as he did as a reliever in 2017 (43.6%), and it's easily his heaviest breaking ball usage as a starter (31.8% in 2018).
Martín Pérez (5.13 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 4.65 SIERA) has had a very up-and-down season for the Red Sox, and I give the Royals a decent starting pitching edge.
I projected the Royals as slight favorites (51%) for the first five innings on Wednesday, and I projected them as 48% underdogs for the whole game. I would bet their F5 moneyline down to +105 and their full game moneyline down to +120.
Mets vs. Braves
Brad Cunningham: David Peterson has been improving after a horrible start to the season and he's still due for some positive regression, as his ERA is at 4.95, but his xFIP is more than a run lower at 3.84. He's struggling with his entire pitch arsenal, as every pitch is allowing an xwOBA over .300, but he'll have a good matchup against this Atlanta lineup, as the Braves rank in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Max Fried is really struggling after a stellar 2020, as his xERA has ballooned up to 4.46. He'll have a tough matchup tonight, too, as the Mets' lineup is finally starting to get healthy, with Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto back.
The Mets also will have an advantage in the later innings, as they have one of the best bullpens in baseball, as they rank in the top five in both ERA and xFIP, while Atlanta is in the bottom 10.
I have the Mets projected at +103 tonight, so I think there is some value on them at +139 and would play it down to +120.
