It's the penultimate Sunday in Major League Baseball and there's plenty of action with serious postseason implications.
Our analysts have angles on three games: White Sox vs. Indians, Astros vs. Athletics and Yankees vs. Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.
Here are our three best bets for Sunday in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 7:08 p.m. ET | |
White Sox vs. Indians
DJ James: The Chicago White Sox face the Cleveland Indians for the final game of the series on Sunday afternoon. Lucas Giolito heads to the bump to face the up-and-coming ace for Cleveland, Triston McKenzie. With the White Sox clinching on Thursday afternoon, they will likely be in cruise control, specifically on getaway days, and Cleveland has been a poor hitting team all season long.
Giolito has been very consistent for the White Sox the past three years. He owns a 3.27 xERA on this season with a 3.70 ERA and has pitched very well in August and September. Given how Cleveland has a 77 wRC+ in September against righties, Giolito will likely be solid this start.
His out-pitch is his changeup, which he throws around 33% of the time. Cleveland is only hitting changeups from righties 84.5 mph as an Average Exit Velocity since August 1. In that same timeframe, their xwOBA is only .277 on this type of pitch. Outside of José Ramírez, the rest of the Cleveland lineup has a poor matchup with Giolito in this one.
Outside of his last start, McKenzie seems to be putting it together for the Indians. He is only 24, so he is a bit raw, but the talent is there. The White Sox lineup has also been below average facing right-handers this month, and given McKenzie’s chase rate of 31.3%, he should be able to carve up a few of the White Sox hitters.
Given this series of variables, the under is the play here at 8.5 (-120). Play this to 8 (-130), as runs will be at a premium Sunday afternoon.
Astros vs. Athletics
Collin Whitchurch: After battling injuries early in the season, Jake Odorizzi has finally come around for the Astros and looks like someone they will be able to rely on in the postseason.
Excluding his most recently shortened start (which was still scoreless), Odorizzi has gone at least five innings and allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. His ERA during that span was just 2.90, and since the start of July it's a respectable 4.30.
When Odorizzi gets knocked around, it's usually because of the home run, and he's pitching today in Oakland, which is the fifth-most pitcher friendly park in baseball this season in terms of home runs allowed, and the most pitcher-friendly park overall via Baseball Savant's Park Factors.
Paul Blackburn doesn't get dinged by home runs. He gets dinged by hard contact, and has a 5.17 ERA in 31 1/3 innings for Oakland since joining the rotation in mid-August. FIP says that number has been unlucky, but he's clearly the inferior pitcher in today's matchup.
Houston has a chance to wrap up the AL West today and shaking off this three-game winning streak and putting the thing on ice is surely something it would like to end the weekend with. I think the Astros should be bigger favorites here, and would bet them to -130.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
| 7:08 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: The Yankees are hot again, and a win on Sunday would give them their sixth straight win, complete a road sweep over their hated rival, and move them back into poll position in the AL wild-card race.
The pitching matchup is close to a wash. Eduardo Rodriguez has performed better than his ERA all season, but we're still talking about a guy with nearly a 5 ERA over a full season of work. He may have been unlucky all season, but we're simply just going to look back at his 2021 season and say he was unlucky all season long. Why would his luck change today?
Montgomery has been steady and solid in the run prevention department all year long and has a 3.63 ERA in four starts and 22 1/3 innings against Boston this year. When he runs into trouble is when he allows walks, and he has seven against the Red Sox this year.
Boston's bullpen is a trainwreck right now, and both offenses have mostly been clicking despite the low-scoring affair until late on Saturday.
It may not happen until the late innings, but I like the over here at 9.5 and -115. You'll see some 10s out there, but I wouldn't bet it past 9.5.
