There are 15 MLB games on the Sunday, July 23 schedule and our betting experts have made their picks.
With a full schedule of games, there were plenty of MLB odds to analyze, but our experts narrowed down the board and found picks in Braves vs. Brewers, Dodgers vs. Rangers and Blue Jays vs. Mariners.
They're targeting a total, a first five innings moneyline and a full-game moneyline, so keep reading as the MLB best bets for Sunday, July 23 are below.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs. Brewers
Sunday, July 23 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 9.5 (-114)  |
Bryce Elder has been viewed as one of the biggest regression candidates among starting pitchers for a large portion of the season.
That has started to come to fruition over the past couple of weeks. He allowed seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rays right before the All-Star break — including four walks and no strikeouts — and five runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Diamondbacks in his most recent start.
Books are undoubtedly aware, but the Braves are still going to be priced as heavy favorites more often than not and that's the case Sunday afternoon against the Brewers. While I'm tempted to take Milwaukee at the +150 range at which they're being offered, I don't have enough faith in Julio Teheran.
Since coming out of nowhere to find a moderate amount of success in Milwaukee in late May, Teheran has similarly hit the skids, though it wasn't as predictable Elder's fall. Teheran has given up 10 runs over his past 10 2/3 innings and faces a tall task against a Braves offense that is the best in baseball.
Obviously, the sportsbooks are aware of Atlanta's offensive power and the struggles of both pitchers, so the total is set at a predictably high 9.5. However, I still see value in the over.
Atlanta's bullpen has been overworked lately and although Milwaukee has a dominant back-end, I trust these offenses enough to hit double-digits. I would bet over 9.5 at -120 or better and would also take it if it hits 10 at -105 or better.
Pick: Over 9.5 | Play to 10 |
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Dodgers vs. Rangers
Sunday, July 23 2:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Dodgers 1st 5 Innings Moneyline (-107)  |
Emmet Sheehan is the Dodgers' sixth-ranked prospect he's been good through his first four starts. He's posted a 3.25 xERA, but did get lit up by the Orioles in his most recent start.
Sheehan relies on his fastball, and for good reason, because scouts have graded it as a 65 on the 20-80 scale. The pitch, which features good movement, averages around 96 mph, which is why it has a 115 Stuff+ rating.
While Sheehan's fastball is good, he isn't getting the swings and misses like he did in the minors. He had a 14.85 K/9 rate in Double-A, but now is only at 6.31 in the majors.
Sheehan needs to utilize his two off-speed pitches more often. Scout gave his changeup a 60 grade and the pitch was almost unhittable in the minors. However, he's only thrown it 64 times in the big leagues, even though opponents have just a .081 xBA against it. He needs to throw it more often.
The Rangers feature one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching, but will be without one of their best hitters in Corey Seager (sprained thumb).
Martin Perez has been bad and his expected metrics are even worse. He has a 4.84 ERA with a 5.59 xERA and is below the 10th percentile among starting pitchers in expected batting average allowed, expected slugging allowed and expected wOBA allowed. His sinker and cutter are getting shelled. Both pitches are allowing over a .390 xwOBA and the Stuff+ on both is below 85.
The Dodgers are a top-10 offense against left-handed pitching by wOBA and have a .372 xwOBA against left-handed sinkers and cutters.
I have the Dodgers projected at -143 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -107.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Innings Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Sunday, July 23 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mariners Moneyline (-132) |
Alek Manoah has made two starts since returning from his demotion to the Minor Leagues and the underlying numbers are still alarming. He doesn't have a single above-average pitch by Stuff+ and his Location+ sits at just 96. Manoah used his elite slider to post excellent results in 2022, but his decline in command and his lack of a good whiff pitch has drastically altered his ERA projection.
The Mariners are patient and will strike out, but will also work deep counts against a pitcher struggling with command. Manoah may have dominated the Tigers, but the Padres start showed he's still far from the 2022 version.
Bryan Woo really struggled in his most recent outing and is nearing a potential innings limit. Woo has a much deeper arsenal with an above-average fastball and two excellent breaking pitches. There's less of a track record, but Woo is the better starter by every metric. The Mariners also maintain their bullpen advantage, which has helped flip the first two games of this series.
With a solid pitching advantage throughout, I'd bet Seattle to complete the sweep at -135 or better.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
